Georgeland legislative election, 2007

The 2008 general election in Georgeland will be fought between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands and the opposition Conservative Party of Georgeland. The Liberal Democrats will be seeking a third term in office under that name, and Prime Minister Zoe Parker will be seeking her first electoral victory. The Opposition will be attempting to gain power in a non-caretaker capacity for the first time in thirteen years.
At the 2005 election, the Tories gained ten seats, for a total of 122. The government lost five for a total of 137; the LDP majority in the House of Commons is thirteen. To win, the Conservatives will have to capture nine seats, which is perfectly within the realm of possibility. The size of the House of Commons is expected to be increased following a redistribution in 2007; the new House of Commons will contain 265 members.

Timetable

Georgeland's elections are not fixed. Presuming Parliament serves a full or close to full term, which since the 2004 constitutional reforms has been three years, the election will be in the first half of 2008. The earliest the next election can be held is November 18, 2005 - this is an unlikely scenario. The latest date at which an election can be held is three years is May 6, 2008.

Notable seats

The nine most marginal LDP-held seats, those most likely to fall to the Opposition with only a small swing, are:

1. McGann, Scoita (Duncan Keyes); 0.1%
2. Humphries, WM (Tina Jones); 0.3%
3. Bartlett, Capitalia (Aida Justin); 0.3%
4. Skinner, EM (Al Slattery); 0.5%
5. Cunningham, EM (Dolores Colson); 0.7%
6. Kingston, Bradmarch (Sophia Edwards); 1.0%
7. Murray, EM (Chris Lendeldt); 1.2%
8. Earlich, WM (Tony Parkman); 1.3%
9. Northbay, WM (Tony Elmer); 1.3%

A Tory gain of 1.3% of the two-party preferred vote across all states (a "uniform swing of 1.3%) would therefore be enough to gain government for the Opposition. However, several Tory seats are below this threshold; the second-most marginal seat in the country, Pearmont, is held by incumbent Susanne Sewell by just 0.2%.
Present predictions based on polling data show a probable mean nationwide swing of between 2.4% to 4.7%, which would be enough to win between 15 and 30 seats. It should be noted swings are never uniform nation-wide.

Retiring members

Confirmed

• Fred Osbourne (Conservative, Stonehouse): In December 2006, Osbourne announced he would not be seeking preselection to contest his seat at the election.
• Stephen Cole (Conservative, Hanover): Cole announced in 2005 that his current term of office in his seat, which he has held since 1967, would be his last.
• Lydia Banker (Conservative, Charlton: Though only in her second term, Banker announced in November 2006 she would not contest her seat again due to the death of her husband.
• Donna Bailey (LDP, Follett): Bailey announced she would not recontest in May 2006.
• Andrew Hindle (LDP, Riverside): The former Speaker has announced his retirement 'for personal reasons'.
• Jeffrey Blackburn (LDP, Deane): Blackburn has been suffering from cancer - though currently in remission, he is leaving politics at the next election.

Parties and Leaders

• Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands - It is presumed that newly-elected Prime Minister Zoe Parker will be leader of the LDP in 2008, with no serious challenge to her leadership anticipated.
• Conservative Party of Georgeland - Barring unforseen circumstances, Luke Macaulay is very likely to still be Tory leader by the time of the election, in which case he will be making his first attempt to become Prime Minister. Macaulay will be 45 years old.
• Georgeland Alliance - Current leader Michael Elderton is expected to remain Alliance leader for at least until the election. Elderton will be 60 in 2008. Though he is a well-known figure, Elderton is in danger of being targeted by both major parties and could lose his seat, the party's only House of Commons seat.
• Green Party of Georgeland - Current leader Greg Downes has never formally been elected leader, becoming party spokesman by virtue of his position as Member of Parliament. It is not known whether or not Downes will be the party's spokesman in 2008.