2020 Antillean presidential election
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 2020 Antillean presidential election | |
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The 2020 Antillean presidential election was the 42nd quadrennial presidential election held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020 in the United Commonwealth of America, or more commonly the Antilles. The Federalist ticket of Secretary of the Army Arian Lawrence and Representative Mitchell Vargas defeated the Civic Democratic ticket of House Minority Leader William Abernathy and mayor of Montgomery Allen Paul. Lawrence and Vargas took office on January 22, 2021, with Lawrence becoming the first president from Puerto Rico, while Vargas became the nation's first Hispanic Vice President.
Following the tradition established by George Washington and revived by his uncle, Eric Abarough, in 1992, incumbent president Michael Abarough chose not to seek a third-term as president. In the Federalist primaries, Lawrence emerged victorious among a crowded field of candidates, running on a platform of national conservatism, and selected U.C. Representative Mitchell Vargas from Hispaniola as his running mate. In the Civic Democratic primaries, Abernathy, who had gained notoriety for his work in recuperating Civic Democratic support following the party's poor showing in 2016, easily secured victory amongst competitors and selected Mayor of Montgomery and former challenger Allen Paul as his running mate.
The campaign heavily focused on recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically economic recovery, while also focusing on education reform, civil rights, and foreign affairs. Despite portraying himself as a moderate throughout the campaign, Abernathy advocated for a variety of progressive reforms, most notably the legalization of labor unions, repealing the country's near-total ban on abortion through a constitutional amendment to protect reproductive rights, and economic investment in poorer communities, especially communities of color, to address historic inequalities. Lawrence campaigned strongly as a "common-sense conservative", directing much of his campaign in opposition Abernathy's proposals, which he deemed "socialist" and "divisive". The campaign featured a large amount of political mudslinging from both sides.
On election night, Lawrence and Vargas went on to decisively defeat Abernathy and Paul, receiving 57% of the popular vote and 131 electoral votes, while Abernathy and Paul received 40% of the popular vote and 83 electoral votes. The election saw the highest turnout in Antillean political history, with a total of 17 million Antilleans casting their vote. Abernathy became the first Civic Democrat to win Harrison Parish since 1996. Lawrence and Vargas were inaugerated as the 35th president and 34th vice president respectively on January 20, 2021.
Background
Procedure
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election occurred simultaneously with elections to the Senate and House of Representatives. Gubernatorial and legislative elections in Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, along with various parish-level elections, were also held. Historically, elections that occur simultaneously with the presidential election see an abnormal increase in voter turnout and support for candidates, an increase that has not historically translated into the subsequent midterm elections. The 2020 elections were no different, and had several commonwealth and parish elections have the highest turnout since 2000.
Nominations
Federalist Party nomination
Background
Incumbent president Michael Abarough, following in the tradition established by George Washington and revived by his uncle, president Eric Abarough, decided against running for a third term in office, announcing his future retirement from politics on December 26, 2018. An early frontrunner for the Federalist nomination was the president's son, Glenn Abarough, who was elected as a member of the United Commonwealth House of Representatives in 2016. According to polls conducted by various news agencies, around 67% of Federalists would vote for Abarough in the primaries if he ran. Despite rumors of a exploratory committee, Glenn Abarough announced that he would not seek the nomination on January 6, 2019, citing his political inexperience as his main factor. With his refusal, the Federalist nomination was viewed as wide open.
Primaries
A total of ten major candidates ran for the Federalist Party nomination for the 2020 presidential election, starting with U.C. Secretary of the Army Arian Lawrence. The 2020 primary field was the largest primary field in modern Federalist history, surpassing the 2000 primaries. There were a total of four debates organized by the Federalist National Committee, and all ten candidates were invited to participate in each of debate.
While there were ten major candidates competing for the Federalist nomination, by the second Federalist debate held in January of 2020 polling consolidated around Lawrence, who was viewed to represented the conservative populist faction of the Federalist Party, and Mayor of Fort Hood Robert Kozlowski, who was viewed to represent the traditional conservative establishment of the party, viewed by insiders as the "moderate choice". The Federalist presidential primaries were held throughout the month of June, beginning on June 2 in the Virgin Islands and ending on June 30 in Hispaniola. Following the Cuba primary, Lawrence and Kozlowski were the final remaining candidates. An unofficial debate between the two was held by the National Business Association in Davis on June 27.
Lawrence was declared the winner of the Federalist presidential primaries on June 30, after securing a majority of delegates necessary for the nomination. Kozlowski officially conceded to Lawrence on July 2, after 99% of the vote was counted, and on July 4, outgoing president Michael Abarough, who had opted to remain neutral during the primary, endorsed Lawrence. He was officially nominated by the Federalist Party on August 17, 2020 at the 2020 Federalist National Convention in Columbia City.
Nominees
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| Arian Lawrence | Mitchell Vargas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| TBD U.C. Secretary of the Army (2013–2021) |
U.C. Representative from Hispaniola (1993–2021) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Eliminated in the primaries
Vice presidential selection
After securing the nomination, Lawrence prioritized finding and selecting a vice presidential pick that "align with the conservative American values of the country". It was speculated by multiple media sources that Lawrence would select then-U.C. Representative Glenn Abarough, son of outgoing president Michael Abarough, as his running mate, which would have associated his campaign with the Abarough family and potentially increase his support. However, Abarough denied the rumors, and stated that he wished to increase his political profile before considering a role in the executive branch. Lawrence also denied rumors that he was considered Robert Kozlowski, his chief primary opponent, as his running mate, despite calls to do so by party leadership.
In August, it was announced that Lawrence had narrowed his vice presidential list to three individuals, and would announce his pick prior to the Federalist National Convention. On August 15, two days before the start of the convention, Lawrence announced that he had selected U.C. Representative Mitchell Vargas as his running mate. It was reported that U.C. Senator and former primary challenger Alex Grisham and U.C.A Economic and Cultural Representative to Superior Bradley Gallagher were also considered for the vice presidential role.
Civic Democratic Party nomination
Background
Following the party's poor showing in 2016, there were fears within party leadership that the Civic Democrats would be unable to overcome the contentious legacy of President Jim Cooper, whose controversial presidency was viewed as having "soured" public perception of the party, and with that fears that major candidates would be discouraged from running for office. However, following a strong showing in the 2018 elections, there was a renewed interest in Civic Democratic nomination for 2020.
Primaries
A total of twelve major candidates ran for the Civic Democratic Party presidential nomination, beginning with former Governor of Puerto Rico Juan Hernandez on February 2, 2019. Like the Federalists, the 2020 Civic Democratic primary field was the largest in the party's history, overtaking the 2008 primaries. A total of five debates were organized by the Civic Democratic National Committee.
William Abernathy, the House Minority Leader and widely regarded as a key figure in the 2018 victories was viewed as the frontrunner all throughout the primary campaign, however nearing the primary elections in June his standings in polls gradually decline as progressive challengers such as Mayor of Montgomery Allen Paul and U.C. Representative Karen Bott gained traction with the younger and minority Civic Democrats. The Civic Democratic presidential primaries were held all throughout June of 2020, beginning with the Virgin Islands on June 2 and ending in Hispaniola on June 30.
Abernathy was declared the winner of the Civic Democratic presidential primaries on June 30, after narrowly securing a majority of delegates needed to obtain the nomination. Paul, who emerged as his chief and final opponent by the Hispaniola primary, conceded defeat on July 5. Abernathy was formally nominated by the Civic Democratic Party on August 10 during the 2020 Civic Democratic National Convention in Montgomery.
Nominees
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| William Abernathy | Allen Paul | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| House Minority Leader (2017–present) |
5th Mayor of Montgomery (2018–present) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Eliminated in the primaries
Vice presidential selection
Following his primary victory, Abernathy had stated his intent to select a progressive member of his party as his vice presidential running mate, believing that a united front between liberals and progressives would be able to defeat Lawrence. It was reported by political insiders that Mayor of Montgomery and runner up in the primaries Allen Paul and U.C. Senator David Castaway were the top two contenders for the vice presidential selection.
On August 2, a week before the Civic Democratic National Convention, Abernathy announced Paul as his running mate through social media. Details regarding Paul's selection had already been leaked to the media two weeks prior to the announcement. Along with Castaway, it was reported that U.C. Representatives Cori Parker and Kelly Parker were briefly considered as possible running mates.
Third party nominations
National Libertarian Party primaries
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| Brett Rutherford | Mirek Janda | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Vice Chair of the National Libertarian Party (2017–2019) |
Member of the Hispaniola Provisional Assembly (2005–2019) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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