2024 Antillean presidential election
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 2024 Antillean presidential election | |
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The 2024 Antillean presidential election will be the 43rd quadrennial presidential election in the United Commonwealth of America, or more commonly known as the Antilles, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The incumbent, president Arian Lawrence formally announced his re-election bid on January 31, 2023 in Columbia City. He also announced that incumbent vice president Mitchell Vargas would again be his running mate.
In the Antilles, elections follow primary elections held in June of the election year by major parties to determine their nominees. The 2024 presidential election will occur simultaneously with elections to the Senate and House of Representatives. Major party primaries took place throughout June to determine their nominees for the general election with Lawrence winning the Federalist primaries by wide margins and becoming the presumptive nominee on June 4, 2024 following his landslide victory in the Hispaniola primary. Throughout the Civic Democratic primaries, Allen Paul and Alexander Wilder have emerged as the main frontrunners in a deeply competitive race. Paul emerged as the presumptive Civic Democratic nominee on June 18 after his landslide win in Cuba where he will be the second Antillean nationalist, first African Antillean, and first progressive major party presidential candidate in Antillean history.
A number of issues for the 2024 election have included foreign policy, relations and recent tensions with the United Commonwealth in the American mainland, healthcare and healthcare access, issues of racial and economic inequality between White and non-White Antilleans, and the country's political status. The Antillean independence movement has garnered attention as a major issue due to the increased support of Antillean nationalism among the Civic Democratic base and the likelihood of another Antillean nationalist nominee for the Civic Democrats.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United Commonwealth Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United Commonwealth of America, be at least 35 years old, and have been a resident of the United Commonwealth of America, specifically the Antilles, for twenty-two months. Any individual may be elected to the presidency more than twice, though since George Washington it has been a longstanding political tradition for presidents to serve only two terms. Incumbent president Arian Lawrence is eligible for re-election, so are former presidents Thomas Marshall, Carlton Woodbridge, and Jim Cooper.
Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties in the Antilles, which is awarded through a primary election. Primary elections are indirect elections, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then nominate a candidate to run on their party's behalf. The presidential nominee, along with a vice presidential nominee of their chosen, are officially nominated at a national convention, though are usually considered already their unofficial party nominee by the time of the convention.
Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election. Voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral Congregation, who in turn elect the president and vice president. If no candidate receives the minimum 117 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election is held in which the United Commonwealth Senate will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Since the beginning of democratization in 1983, there has been no instance of a contingent election occurring.
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election will occur simultaneously with elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate. Three gubernatorial elections in Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, along with various parish-level elections, will also occur simultaneously with the presidential election. Historically, commonwealth and parish level elections receive a larger turnout than federal elections, as presidential candidates tend to draw a larger voting bloc.
Potential campaign issues
Caribbean Crisis and Operation Poseidon's Watch
Economy
Other major issues
In light of the Caribbean diplomatic crisis and heightened tensions with the Continentals, President Lawrence called the military recruitment shortage a "national crisis" at a campaign event in January 2023. For several years starting in 2017 the armed forces, especially the Army, had failed to meet their projected annual recruiting goals, and the Department of the Army informed the National Assembly in 2022 that in the previous year the Army had the largest shortfall since the Great War, missing its recruiting goal by 20,000 new recruits. The Navy and the Air Force also reported significant shortages, while the Marine Corps and the Coast Guard were the only branches that met their recruiting targets. Lawrence, who had announced in 2016 when he was the Secretary of the Army that the post-Cold War reductions to the military should be reversed and in 2021 that he intends to expand the military, said at a campaign event that "national defense must be a national effort," and that as president he is taking measures to "mitigate the risk posed by the recruiting crisis" to the national security of the Antilles.
Federalist Party
Incumbent President Arian Lawrence formally announced his candidacy on 31 January 2023 at a public event held in his home city of Davis in Hispaniola, holding his first campaign rally and announcing that incumbent vice president Mitchell Vargas will be his running mate once again. Lawrence, who was elected in 2020 where he won 57% of the popular vote over Civic Democrat William Abernathy, had stated his intention to run for re-election numerous times throughout his presidency, however did not formally announce it until the end of January 2023. Due to his high approval ratings among the Federalist base, Lawrence is expected to face token opposition at most in the primaries and has received praise for his foreign policy, boosting the Antilles' notoriety internationally, and leadership throughout the Caribbean crisis, however has faced controversy, both at home and abroad, over his domestic and social policies.
Despite Lawrence's popularity, some factions of the Federalist Party are expected to attempt to primary him for the presidential election and has been beset by several controversies including his contentious social and domestic policies as well as the Federalist Party's underwhelming showing at the 2022 midterms where the party, despite winning, made no net gains, several races saw Federalist candidates win by single-diget margins in traditionally red districts, and suffered visible losses to the Civic Democrats during the 2022 Cuba elections where the party lost their majority in the legislature and state-wide offices for the first time since 2006. The Libertarian Caucus, a libertarian ideological caucus of the Federalist Party, has expressed its willingness to contest the election if a candidate chooses to run and former Marine Corps commandant and navy secretary William Ainsworth formally announced his candidacy on 2 February 2023 after months of speculation and public expressions of general interest by Ainsworth himself, becoming the second major candidate to enter the race.
Throughout the primaries, Lawrence has won by large margins, winning over 60% of the vote in the first primary race in Cuba and securing over 60% of the vote in the Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands primaries after the Hispaniola primary where he won in a 3-1 landslide on June 4. Ainsworth has continued to run despite being technically eliminated after the Hispaniola election and has been able to secure over 25% of the popular vote in most races despite the large polling advantage Lawrence has held over him.
Presumptive nominee
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| Arian Lawrence | Mitchell Vargas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 34th President of the Antilles (2021–present) |
33rd Vice President of the Antilles (2021–present) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Civic Democratic Party
In 2020, William Abernathy was defeated by Arian Lawrence. While being defeated in a landslide in terms of the popular vote, the increased voter turnout for a Civic Democratic candidate and the closeness of the election in terms of the Electoral Congregation, has "inspired and invigorated party leadership for 2024", according to CBS News. It is expected that the 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries will be highly competitive when compared to the 2020 presidential primaries, as the party has seen an increase in support for its progressive wing, which "will certainly challenge the liberal and moderate party establishment for who they blame for the disappointing results of the 2022 midterms", according to political analyst Joe Robar.
On 22 January 2023, Abernathy announced that he wouldn't run in 2024 and would focus on serving as the House Minority Leader instead, believing that he would be more effective in such a position. Abernathy's announcement has been viewed by political analysts as a confirmation that the 2024 Civic Democratic primaries will be intensely competitive and leaves an opportunity for the progressive faction to gain the nomination. On February 10, mayor of Montgomery and the Civic Democrat vice presidential nominee in 2020 Allen Paul announced his candidacy at his home town, becoming the first Civic Democratic candidate to enter the race in a move that has been seen by some political commentators as an act to gain momentum for the progressive wing of the party to gain the nomination and/or greater influence or control over the party at-large.
On February 13, 2023, Vice Chair of the Civic Democratic National Committee Alexander Wilder from Whiteport formally announced his candidacy for the presidency in the city itself. Wilder was subject to widespread speculation by several media outlets due to his public expression of interest in running for president since mid-2022 along with his close working relationship with Abernathy as vice chair, placing him high up within the party's leadership. After Abernathy announced that he wouldn't run for president again, Wilder announced that he would make his decision on February 13 and filed paperwork with the FEC two and half weeks before his announcement. Wilder announced his plan to protect democracy in the Antilles, supporting expansion of voting rights and also expanding civil rights in the country. Wilder's alignment with the party's moderate and establishment faction has placed him as Allen Paul's main ideological rival for the election and as one of the top contenders for the nomination.
Throughout the primaries, both Wilder and Paul have competed for the Civic Democratic nomination and have garnered the most support in terms of support in the primary polls, endorsements, and the popular vote among Civic Democratic voters. Following the Hispaniola primary, Wilder and Paul have emerged as the two major frontrunners in a deeply competitive field with all other candidates having withdrawn either before or since Hispaniola with the exception of Cuba governor Esteban Morello who has maintained a modest third place in the race. On Jun 18, Paul emerged as the presumptive nominee for the party after winning the Cuba primary in a landslide and securing the needed delegates to become the party's presumptive nominee.
Presumptive nominee
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| Allen Paul | TBA | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 5th Mayor of Montgomery (2018–present) |
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Withdrawn candidates
| Candidates in this section are sorted by popular vote from the primaries | |||||||||||
| Alexander Wilder | Esteban Morello | Mike Connelly | Sarah Wilson | Kelly Parker | Wyatt Tindall | ||||||
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| Vice Chair of the Civic Democratic National Committee (2021–present) |
Governor of Cuba (2021–present) |
Antillean Senator from Jefferson Parish (2005–2017) |
Antillean Representative from Cuba (2017–present) |
Antillean Representative from Hispaniola (2017–present) |
Executive of Davis Parish (2019–present) | ||||||
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| W: June 19 3,213,319 votes |
W: June 17 847,521 votes |
W: June 11 326,937 votes |
W: June 11 233,089 votes |
W: June 9 TBD votes |
W: June 6 TBD votes | ||||||
Third parties and independents
National Libertarian Party
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| David Billington | Michael Cohen | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Executive of Jackson Parish (2015–2021) |
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