2024 Hispaniola Federalist presidential primary
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The 2024 Hispaniola Federalists presidential primary was held on June 4, 2024, as part of the Federalist Party presidential primaries for the 2024 Antillean presidential election. 851 delegates were allocated to the 2024 Federalist National Convention on a selection basis, the largest number of delegates of any primary race within the four provisional commonwealths.
Due to the sheer number of delegates assigned to Hispaniola, the primary was the most important and consequential of the primary season as is the case with the previous Hispaniola primaries since democratization and the first primary in 1984. Hispaniola's large delegate count is due to it possessing the bulk of the Antillean population at over 41 million people. Due to the large number of delegates, the winner of the race was expected to become the presumptive nominee upon winning as with historic precedent with the exception of 2020 primary that was so close that a presumptive nominee didn't emerge until after the primary in mid-June.
Incumbent president Arian Lawrence would win in a landslide victory on election day where he won 75% of the popular vote and 636 delegates while his main opponent, Counselor to the President William Ainsworth won the remaining 25% of the vote and 215 total delegates. Having won 106 delegates from the previous Cuba primary, Lawrence was declared the presumptive nominee having won 742 delegates and surpassing the minimum delegates required to be declared the party's nominee for the 2024 election. Lawrence declared the rally to be a "victory for America" and was a "manifesto for freedom". Despite Lawrence being the presumptive nominee, Ainsworth declined to drop out of the race and stated that he would continue to run until the end of the primary season regardless of the outcome of the election.
Lawrence won the majority of parishes in Hispaniola and the bulk of his support came mainly from rural and suburban communities along with Columbia City and half of Davis while the other half of Davis and all other major cities and urban areas in Hispaniola supported Ainsworth. Most of Lawrence's support came from White Antillean Federalist voters and around one third of Black Federalist voters while Ainsworth's voter base was highlighted for its racial and ethnic diversity. Most political analysts declared the primary season to be effectively over following the Lawrence's win in the Hispaniola primary and Ainsworth continuing his campaign to be a last stand for the moderate wing of the Federalist Party.
Background
Hispaniola has long since been viewed as the most important commonwealth in Antillean presidential primary elections as due to it possessing the majority of the Antillean population, it is typically assigned the largest number of delegates by both the Federalist and Civic Democratic parties. Generally, the Hispaniola presidential primary is considered to be a make or break moment for presidential candidates with the winner of the Hispaniola primary going on to be the party nominee regardless of the outcome in the general election. Among the Federalist Party, the Hispaniola primary is also considered important as it usually determines not only who will be the party's likely nominee, but also who is considered to be the more conservative candidate and is generally considered to be a referendum on what candidate best aligns with the party's base and values. Generally speaking, Federalist voters in Hispaniola tend to be more socially conservative and are greatly influenced by political and religious influence of the Christian Church whose Evangelical theology has resulted in its support for conservative politics.
Arian Lawrence won the Hispaniola primary in 2020 over Robert Kozlowski, with Kozlowski being native to Hispaniola while Lawrence was originally born in Puerto Rico, but would laker make Hispaniola his adoptive home state. Lawrence would win the contested primary securing 47% of the popular vote over Kozlowski's 43%, the first time the primary had no clear decisive winner. Despite his small margin of victory, Lawrence went on to win the subsequent primaries in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Overseas Federalists primaries with his win in Hispaniola being credited with giving him the necessary momentum to emerge victorious as historically seen.