2024 Hispaniola Civic Democratic presidential primary

  

2024 Hispaniola Civic Democratic presidential primary

June 11, 2024
949 delegates to the Civic Democratic National Conveniton
Candidate Allen Paul Alexander Wilder Esteban Morello Home state Hispaniola Hispaniola Cuba Delegate count 444 308 106 Popular vote 2,391,173 1,660,537 572,246 Percentage 46.8% 32.5% 11.2%   Candidate Mike Connelly Sarah Wilson Home state Hispaniola Cuba Delegate count 53 37 Popular vote 286,123 192,264 Percentage 5.6% 3.9

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Government

The 2024 Hispaniola Civic Democratic presidential primary was held on June 11, 2024, as part of the Civic Democratic Part primaries for the 2024 Antillean presidential election. 949 delegates allocated to the 2024 Civic Democratic National Convention were assigned to Hispaniola, the largest of any primary race by far, on a winner-take-most basis. As with previous primaries in Hispaniola, the 2024 presidential primary is considered to be the biggest race of the 2024 Civic Democratic primary cycle due to the sheer number of delegates assigned to the commonwealth as well as the overall status that Hispaniola holds of determining the outcome of the presidential primaries with the winner typically going on to become the party's eventual nominee. The race is being contested between five candidates, Allen Paul and Alexander Wilder being the two biggest candidates, after Kelly Parker and Wyatt Tindall both dropped out of the race on June 6 and June 9 respectively.

Most candidates are natives of Hispaniola due to it holding the bulk of the nation's population with the first candidates announcing their candidacies in Hispaniola itself, mainly from their home cities or constituencies. On top of the number of convention delegates assigned to the commonwealth and its status as influencing the outcome of the entire primary cycle, Hispaniola is considered to be deeply competitive as both moderate liberal and progressive politics hold significant influence among the Civic Democratic electorate in the commonwealth with both camps sharing high levels of support overall, causing analysts to declare Hispaniola the most competitive primary of the 2024 election cycle.

Polls began closing around 8:00 EST around which Allen Paul was declared to be the winner with the final results seeing Paul win by a landslide margin, winning 46.8% of the popular vote and a total of 444 delegates. Alexander Wilder came in a distant second place with 32.5% of the popular vote and 308 delegates while Morello, Connelly, and Wilson all won 11.2%, 5.6%, and 3.9% respectively with Morello winning 106 total delegates. Hours after polls had closed and the results were announced, both Connelly and Wilson withdrew from the race and endorsed Wilder and Paul respectively. Most political analysts consider Paul to be the likely presumptive nominee due to his massive victory in the Hispaniola primary, however Wilder won enough delegates and support that the subsequent Cuba primary will decide who will be the ultimate winner of the cycle.

Background

Hispaniola has the largest population of any of the four main provisional commonwealths within the Antilles, and as such is assigned the largest number of Conveniton delegates by both the Civic Democratic and Federalist parties. In 2020, William Abernathy managed to win the Hispaniola primary over Allen Paul on June 30, becoming the presumptive nominee for the general elections afterwards. Hispaniola was deeply competitive, the most of the 2020 Civic Democratic presidential primaries, due to both Abernathy and Paul holding large bases of support in the commonwealth and the near-equal levels of influence that the moderate and progressive factions of the Civic Democratic Party held. Despite losing, Paul built a strong base of support that has persisted well into the 2024 election cycle with most being centered on Hispaniola.

Civic Democratic electorate

The Civic Democratic electorate in Hispaniola is generally considered to be split near-evenly in terms of support for both moderate and progressive candidates and elected officials. In regards to the breakdown of the electorate by demographics, Civic Democratic voters in suburban and rural areas are generally more supportive of moderate/traditionally liberal candidates while voters in major cities and other urban areas heavily lean progressive, with Civic Democratic voters from downtown areas of all major cities being staunchly progressive and have a reputation for electing deeply progressive and left-leaning candidates to all levels of government.

The political leanings of the party's electorate in Hispaniola is also broken down among racial and ethnic lines, with White Antillean party voters being generally supportive of moderate Civic Democrats while African Antillean and other racial minority voters are more supportive of progressive candidates due to the movement focusing more on issues of racial inequality and past mistreatment by comparison to the party's moderate faction. When broken down by age, young voters aged 18 to 25 heavily lean progressive and typically back the most left-leaning candidates while older overs, aged 45 and above, back moderate candidates and those between the ages fo 30 and 44 are mixed. Female voters are more likely to back progressive candidates when compared to male voters.

Procedure

949 delegates of the 2024 Civic Democratic National Convention were allocated to Hispaniola, the largest of the four main commonwealths. Similar to the Federalist Party, the Civic Democratic Party assigns convention delegates to each commonwealth based on each of their respective population sizes with Hispaniola being assigned the largest number due to it having 41.1 million people, the largest of the four commonwealths. Delegates will be assigned to each candidate based on what percentage of the popular vote they won in a winner-take-most system.

Candidates

The following candidates filed for the Hispaniola ballot by June 2, 2024:

• Allen Paul
• Alexander Wilder
• Mike Connelly
• Esteban Morello
• Kelly Parker (withdrew on June 9, 2024)
• Wyatt Tindall (withdrew on June 6, 2024)
• Sarah Wilson

See also

• 2024 Hispaniola Federalist presidential primary
• 2024 Antillean presidential election in Hispaniola
• 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries