2024 Cuba Civic Democratic presidential primary
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645 delegates (622 pledged and 23 unpledged) to the Civic Democratic National Convention | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 Cuba Civic Democratic presidential primary is being held on June 18, 2024, as part of the Civic Democratic presidential primaries for the 2024 Antillean presidential election. 645 delegates, 622 pledged and 23 unpledged, to the Civic Democratic National Convention will be allocated to the presidential election. Just like the first Civic Democratic primary election held in 2020, Cuba will be held after the Hispaniola primary and will be the last major primary before the National Convention is held after the Civic Democrats Abroad primary.
Following the Hispaniola primary, Allen Paul, Alexander Wilder, and Esteban Morello emerged as the remaining candidates in the race after both Sarah Wilson and Mike Connelly withdrew from the race. On June 17, Morello withdrew from the race and endorsed Allen Paul, leaving him and Wilder the only two remaining candidates and the main frontrunners in the race, solidifying a status that had been in effect throughout the primaries. Despite having withdrawn, Morello will remain on the ballot for the election. Due to the status of the primary as well as Cuba's large number of delegates, the election is expected to determine who the Civic Democratic Party's official nominee for the general election will be, being nicknamed the "make or break primary" by several political analysts as a result.
Polls closed at 8:00 PM with the last votes being counted by 10:02 PM with the final results showing a landslide victory for Allen Paul who won 61.7% of the popular vote and 398 total delegates while Wilder won 33.4% of the popular vote and 215 delegates. Despite Morello withdrawing from the race the day before, he managed to win nearly 5% of the popular vote and 32 delegates. Paul's overwhelming victory was attributed to Morello's endorsement managing to help him secure the backing of Hispanic voters to guarantee his victory along with his progressive views better aligning with the Civic Democratic voters also helping him win. Having secured 492 delegates from the previous three primaries has seen him win 890 delegates, guaranteeing Paul as the presumptive nominee of the Civic Democratic Party for the general election.
Background
In the previous primary in 2020, William Abernathy emerged victorious in a hotly contested primary where he won 43% of the popular vote, while his biggest opponent Allen Paul won 36% of the vote. The hotly contested nature of the primary made it so that the final winner would only be decided at the Hispaniola primary.
Political status and electorate
Cuba has been a source of media speculation and discussion due to its status as a swing state among the four provisional commonwealths with president Arian Lawrence only carrying Cuba by a narrow margin in 2020 while the Civic Democrats won the governorship that same year with Esteban Morello becoming the first Civic Democratic governor to be elected in Cuba since the party's formation and the first non-Federalist governor to be elected since 2008. In 2022, the party made major gains in Cuba where the party swept control over all commonwealth offices and regained control over the Cuba Provisional Assembly, decisvely winning a governing majority in the legislature and granting the party a governing trifecta for the first time in Cuban state history.
One of the main factors was Morello's personal, popularity in Cuba as well as his appeal to non-White minority voters, in particular Hispanic Antilleans, who make up a substantial portion of the Civic Democratic base in Cuba. During the 2022 state elections, Morello was able to result in record turnout among Hispanic Civic Democratic voters and was one of the main reasons behind the party's major win in the state elections that year, being described as a blue wave.
Procedure
649 delegates allocated to the Civic Democratic National Convention have been assigned to Cuba for the 2024 primary election. The delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-most basis with the number of delegates being determined by how much of the popular vote each candidate managed to gain during the election. Behind only Hispaniola, Cuba has the second largest number of assigned delegates of any primary in the Antilles due to it having the second highest population of the four provisional commonwealths.
Candidates
The following candidates have officially filed by the end of the filing deadline on January 10, 2024.
- Mike Connelly (withdrew on June 11, 2024)
- Esteban Morello (withdrew on June 17, 2024)
- Kelly Parker (withdrew on June 9, 2024)
- Allen Paul
- Wyatt Tindall (withdrew on June 6, 2024)
- Alexander Wilder
- Sarah Wilson (withdrew on June 11, 2024)
Campaign developments
Endorsements
Opinion polling
See also
- 2024 Cuba Federalist presidential primary
- 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Antillean presidential election in Cuba
- 2024 Cuba elections
References
- ↑ Morello remained on the ballot despite his withdrawal the day before.