2023-2024 Mejican-Central American War
The 2023-2024 Mejican-Central American War was an armed conflict that took place in Central America between January 2023 and February 2024. The conflict began after months of rising border tensions between Mejico and Central America. It resulted in over 200,000 people killed or injured, including thousands of civilians, and instigated one of the largest refugee crises the American continent has ever seen. About 6 million Central Americans were displaced internally, and a further 4 million fled the country.
Analysts and commentators have pointed to the Tapachula Incident in October 2022 as the catalyst for the invasion, as it resulted in a significant shift in the relationship between Mejico and Central America. Previous border tensions had been soothed with the Holy Innocents' Day Accords of 2019, but the riot, which resulted in over 20 deaths, heightened concerns in Mejico about national security, and prompted a military mobilization towards the border, a migration moratorium, and a sweeping deportation operative that saw more than 50,000 people deported towards Central America. On January 15, 2023, President Gabriel Quadri announced Operation Nuevo Amanecer, a campaign aimed at securing Mejico's southern border, but the Mejican Democratic Party, coalition partners of President Quadri, demanded an invasion and regime change in Central America. On January 22, President Quadri gave a televised address regarding the situation, and on January 24, Mejican forces launched a large-scale military incursion into Central American territory.
Two main offensives were launched at first, the first one along the Pacific Coast, which took Quetzaltenango by February 2, and a second front, devised as a pincer maneuver through the Petén region. On February 12, a third offensive commenced on Omoa Bay. In the following weeks, Mejican forces advanced successfully across the three fronts, taking Belice City on February 23. Next, El Salvador and Costa Rica, both of them Mejican allies, announced their support for Mejico, and declared war on the CAR. By March 4, the Petén region had been secured, and a few days later, the large city of San Pedro Sula was taken. As pressure mounted on the CAR, the first calls for peace were raised, and both countries signed a month-long armistice to discuss the matter. Negotiations, however, were fruitless, as neither diplomatic delegation managed to reach an accord, and hostilities resumed on April 16.
The Duke of Otumba, one of Mejico's most prominent military commanders, conquered the city of Huehuetenango on April 25, and placed Guatemala City under siege. On the northern coast, after the Mejican bomardment of La Ceiba, the Mejican Army began their advance towards Tegucigalpa, the federal capital of the CAR. By May 18, Guatemala City had signed its surrender. On June 7, Mejico began the twin Fonseca Bay and Chinandega offensives, the first with the aim of encircling Tegucigalpa, and the latter with the aim of capturing Managua. While the Chinandega offensive was moderately successful, as Managua had been sieged by June 30, Fonseca Bay was a disaster for the Mejican Army, taking heavy casualties, and was dissolved on August 16. After the Fonseca fiasco, as it was known in Mejico, President Quadri announced his disposition to begin a new round of peace discussions, but these were interrupted abruptly by the public caning of Mejican diplomats on August 24, shortly after the Mejican capture of Managua.
Some of the diplomats were from important ducal families, and the incident caused global outrage. Emperor Agustín VI declared that Mejico would carry out referendums in the occupied territories due to the accident, held between September 12 and 16, for the population to vote on the issue of their political future. The referendums were met with mixed emotions, with Mejico's allies lauding them as legitimate, and the International decrying them as fraudulent. The regions adjacent to Mejico voted in favor of annexation and, on October 17, in another televised address, Agustín VI and President Quadri announced the creation of two new provinces - Belice and Los Altos. Just five days later, on October 22, the Mejican Congress passed the Ley de Protección y Anexión, formally annexing the new territories to Mejico and introducing sweeping changes to their political and economic systems.
The opposition - the PPP, PSUM, and MRD - were split in their reaction. The MRD as an offshoot of the PPP, founded by disgruntled members who opposed the neoprogressive bent of the party, voted in favor of the law, while the PPP and PSUM attempted a sit-in during the first round of voting, causing a clash with security forces and their supporters. While the rest of the year saw little action on the battlefields, a series of protests and demonstrations broke out in Mejico during this time. The PPP led its youth cohorts and clashed with MURO-affiliated students in universities, and street clashes were common across various cities. Between October and November, over 3,000 people were arrested, more than 60 were hospitalized, and one death was reported, although more are suspected. The Mejican monarchy and the political establishment continued to condemn the PPP, and clashes continued in both universities and the streets. The largest one occurred on November 16, when PPP leader Camila Lobato called for a large demonstration in the Zócalo, demanding the resignation of President Quadri.
As the demonstration reached the Imperial Palace, intense clashes erupted between protestors and security forces, involving molotov cocktails, petrol bombs, water cannons, and riot police. Incendiary comments made by the Prince Imperial ignited anger and resentment among the opposition, Agustín VI ordered the arrest of Lobato and the PPP's leadership on November 17, and Quadri ordered the intervention ofthe National Gendarmerie to crack down on protestors, and accused them of "anti-Mejican activities". On November 19, Agustín VI proclaimed the dissolution of the PPP and the PSUM, declaring the party illegal and banning its activities. The MRD was reeled in through the Pact ofthe Basilica, an agreement between the monarch and Gabino Nanclares, on December 3, which many commentators claimed effectively removed the opposition in Mejico.
For the rest of December, smaller scale clashes continued, involving Mejican paramilitary, holy orders, vigilantes, protesters, and anarchists. On December 14 and 16, terrorist attacks rocked the newly-integrated cities of Belmopán and Huehuetenango, leading to conspiracy theories and speculation. An investigation, the veracity of which has been doubted, concluded that Mejican nationals carried out the attacks, rather than Central American partisans. On the new year, Agustín VI delivered a speech in the Zócalo, denouncing the opposition as "enemies of the state" and, following criticism from civil organizations and NGOs, he ordered a suspension of their activities, further cementing his autocratic tendencies.
Meanwhile, in Central America, discontent against Ortega's government and disillusionment with the prospect of reclaiming any lost territories led to a significant increase in discontent within the Central American Armed Forces. Captain Rodrigo Anaya launched a failed coup on January 3, 2024, and was arrested. Ortega called for a national conscription program within the same day as a means of bolstering support, but this only intensified resentment against his government, as protests escalated in the unoccupied Central American cities, especially in the capital Tegucigalpa. On February 5, the Duke of Otumba received approval to support a second coup against Ortega, liberating Anaya from prison and occupying the city by the evening. On February 9, diplomats met in the city of Comayagua and signed the Treaties of San Miguel on February 9, formally ending the war.
The government of the Democratic Republic of Central America was toppled and the Federal Republic of Central America was imposed in its place, with Captain Anaya at its helm. Mejico was compromised to modify the status of Los Altos and Belice, promising to carry out a second referendum within both territories for the possibility of reintegration to Central America. A LON-led monitoring mission was established to oversee the transition process, and Central America was compromised to carry out a plebiscite to join the ICN within three years of the signing of the treaty.
Background and Prelude
The Mejican invasion of the Central American Republic is part of the broader conflict between both nations that has been building up since the 19th century. Stemming from long-standing border tensions between both nations, the invasion has escalated into a protracted and bloody struggle, leading to a catastrophic loss of life and triggering one of the most significant refugee crises in the Americas' history. As of July 2023, almost eighty thousand people have been killed or injured, and the resulting displacement has affected millions of Central Americans both within their homeland and beyond its borders.
Tensions between Mejico and Central America have been simmering for years, with periodic flare-ups of hostilities. Notably, during José Antonio Meade's presidency in 2019, the region witnessed a notable escalation of conflict. However, it was the harrowing Tapachula Incident in December 2022 that proved to be a turning point, dramatically altering the dynamics between Mejico and its neighboring countries in Central America. The incident was a tragic and violent episode that unfolded at a border crossing between Mejico and Central America in the southern province of Chiapas. A group of illegal immigrants clashed with authorities, leading to the brutal lynching of a police officer. Subsequently, the situation spiraled out of control, escalating into a full-scale riot that claimed the lives of more than 20 individuals. This horrifying incident shook the Mejican populace and authorities alike, igniting grave concerns about national security threats posed by illegal migration.
In the wake of the Tapachula Incident, Mejico's military was mobilized, undertaking extensive pacifying operations along the border with Central America. In an attempt to mitigate security risks, a migration moratorium was hastily implemented, imposing stringent restrictions on the entry of migrants from Central America into Mejico, irrespective of their origin, together with the deportation of almost 50,000 people in the first three months following the start of the invasion. The fallout from this moratorium had a profound impact on the Central American Republic and its people, exacerbating existing tensions and eventually escalating into full-scale conflict.
A core catalyst behind the invasion was the perceived threat to Mejico's national security presented by the overwhelming influx of illegal migration from Central America. This concern resonated deeply with the Mejican government and its citizens, fueling sentiments of fear and insecurity. In response, the decision to launch a military invasion was seen as a means to protect national sovereignty and safeguard the nation from potential external threats.
The Tapachula Incident
The incident took place in October 2022. It began when Mejican police officers attempted to stop a group of migrants who were attempting to cross the border illegally. Reports of the incident at this point are unclear, and it is unclear what unfolded exactly, but eyewitness accounts, which have often been contradictory, mention that the migrants resisted arrest, a scuffle broke out, and a police officer was beaten to death with a baton. The migrants then fled in the direction of Tapachula, where a mob was formed, and most of the migrants, together with four Mejican citizens, perished in the middle of a violent altercation.
The Tapachula Incident had a profound impact on the political landscape in Mejico. The Quadri administration faced immense pressure to respond decisively to the incident and its aftermath, as President Meade had done in 2019. Calls for tougher border control measures and stringent immigration policies grew louder, fueled by the belief that the nation's security was at stake. In response to public outrage and security concerns, President Quadri announced a significant escalation in Mejico's border security measures. The military was deployed to reinforce the border areas, conducting operations to deter and apprehend illegal migrants. Additionally, a migration moratorium was imlemented, temporarily restricting the entry of all migrants from Central America into Mejico.
The moratorium further strained diplomatic relations between Mejico and the Central American Republic. While Central American officials acknowledged the need to address illegal migration concerns, they vehemently objected to Mejico's portrayal of their citizens as economic migrants fleeing poverty, dismissing it as a deliberate attempt to undermine their Marxist principles and discredit their political ideology, as well as accusing President Quadri of "overt discrimination against the free Indigenous peoples of this land". In response, the CAR Coordinator Daniel Ortega intensified his anti-Mejican rhetoric, accusing Mejico of using the incident as a pretext to militarize the border and assert dominance over the region. The government of Central America rallied its supporters, emphasizing the need for solidarity and resistance against what they characterized as "imperialist aggression" from their northern neighbor.
The Mejican Democratic Party (MDP), a Vasconcelist political entity and the largest coalition partner of President Quadri, wielded significant influence within the ruling government. With a staunchly nationalist and assertive agenda, the MDP had long been critical of what they perceived as a "weak-willed" approach to border security and immigration issues under the previous administration of President Meade. They saw this perceived leniency as detrimental to Mejico's national interests and a potential threat to the country's security.
From the outset of Quadri's presidency, the MDP seized the opportunity to leverage its position as a powerful partner to pressure the administration to adopt a more aggressive stance on border control and illegal immigration. Fueled by nationalist sentiment, they argued that stronger measures were necessary to protect Mejico's territorial integrity and to defend the nation from perceived threats posed by the influx of illegal migrants. The MDP consistently amplified public discourse on border security, invoking nationalist rhetoric to garner support for their cause. Party president Rutilio Cornejo emphasized that failure to act decisively would compromise Mejico's sovereignty, cultural and national identity, economic resources, and expose the country to security risks.
President Quadri found himself pushed to respond assertively. While Quadri's National Action Party had historically supported a more measured and diplomatic approach to international relations, the mounting pressure from the MDP left him with a difficult choice. In response, President Quadri ultimately chose to declare an invasion of the Central American Republic on January 10th, 2023.
Timeline
The offensive in the Pacific Coast region was aimed at securing access to the sea and the important port of San José, which would provide Mejico with a strategic advantage in the conflict. The offensive was initially successful, with Mejican forces quickly taking control of Quezaltenango and advancing toward Guatemala City. The Mejican military utilized superior firepower and tactics to overcome Central American resistance, and within weeks, they had secured a significant portion of the territory. The offensive in the Belice region was also successful, with Mejican forces overwhelming local defenses and securing the region. The use of jungle warfare tactics in Tabasco enabled Mejican forces to advance undeterred and avoid detection, allowing them to rendezvous with the attacking forces from Bacalar in the Petén. In Omoa Bay, Mejican forces secured the city of San Pedro Sula after a month of harsh urban warfare, and established control over the region.
In addition to the three fronts launched by Mejican forces, two new offensives started in May 2023. The first was a landing on Chinandega, aimed at advancing on Managua, the capital of the Nicaragua region, and the second was a landing in the Gulf of Fonseca, in coordination with the Salvadoran military, with the objective of reaching Tegucigalpa, the federal capital of Central America. The landing on Chinandega was a major offensive, with Mejican forces landing on the coast and advancing toward Managua. The objective of the offensive was to establish control over Nicaragua's capital and exert pressure on the Central American government to surrender. The offensive was initially successful, with Mejican forces encountering minimal resistance and gaining ground. However, the offensive soon encountered fierce resistance from Central American troops and rebel forces, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides. The second offensive, launched in the Gulf of Fonseca, saw Mejican forces landing in coordination with the Salvadoran military. The objective of this offensive was to reach Tegucigalpa and encircle Ortega. The offensive has been the least successful, being met with stiff resistance from the Central American army and Native guerrilla fighters.