May 14, 2024 tornado outbreak
A widespread, deadly, and historic tornado outbreak affected large portions of Iredale and Valencia, among other states on May 14, 2024, the result of a strong extratropical cyclone. The Fictonia Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a rare high risk for severe weather in south-central Iredale and eastern Valencia, the second high risk issuance ever, and the first one in this region. Strong to violent tornadoes in Valencia prompted the issuance of tornado emergencies. The strongest tornado was an EF5 that went through central Valencia as well as the city of Meridian, Valencia. This same tornado destroyed the Bradford County Power Plant, and nearly caused a nuclear meltdown.
In all, only 4 tornadoes touched down, although all of them were EF4+.
Meteorological synopsis
The Fictonia Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had highlighted a rare Day 5 30% convective risk area for Aqualand, Iredale, and Valencia on May 10th, for the anticipation of some severe weather event in this area. Areas as far southwest as Sparkle City, Fictonia, and as far northeast as Wingohocking-Tulpehocken Courthouse, Aqualand were included in a 15% contour.
The following day, the first ever 45% convective contour was placed for southeastern Iredale and much of central Valencia. A 30% contour was expanded northeast to include much of Aqualand.
On May 12, a moderate risk was issued for northern Deltaland, southern Iredale, and central Valencia. A 45% significant/hatched risk probability was placed with this moderate risk.
On May 13, the second ever high risk was issued, being issued for southwestern Aqualand, far northeastern Deltaland, southeastern Iredale, and much of eastern Valencia. With this high risk, a 45% significant/hatched risk of tornadoes was placed in south-central Iredale and northeastern Valencia, including the cities of Meridian, Valencia, Rockbridge, Iredale, and Twisting Elm, Valencia. A 60% significant/hatched risk of strong winds was placed for southwestern Aqualand, southeastern Iredale, and northeastern Valencia. A 45% significant/hatched risk of large hail was placed for southern Iredale and northeastern Valencia.
May 14
An extratropical cyclone continued intensifying over the border of the state of Fictonia and Valencia on the morning of May 14. As a result, meteorologists expected a storm mode of discrete supercells to develop. This, along with the presence of even stronger CAPE values and a more unstable environment across much of Iredale and Valencia, but not as strong in Aqualand, led to the SPC localizing the high risk to south-central Iredale, and eastern Valencia, now putting southwestern Aqualand in a moderate risk or lower. This high risk was shrunk given the extremely favorable environment for the development and sustainment of discrete supercells in Iredale and Valencia, with strong to violent tornado potential. All throughout the main risk area, an elevated risk for damaging winds and large hail was also present. With the new outlook, the first ever 60% significant/hatched risk of tornadoes was placed in Rockbridge County, Iredale, and a few counties in northeastern Valencia, including the city of Twisting Elm, Valencia. The wind risk was downgraded from a 45% significant/hatched to a 30% significant/hatched. The hail risk was downgraded from a 45% significant/hatched risk to just a 30% risk, non-significant.
Just minutes after the outlook for May 14 was published, a mesoscale discussion (#31) was issued, which gave the probability of a PDS tornado watch being issued as 100%, one of the first times a watch was given a 100% chance of issuance.
A PDS Tornado Watch was issued just 5 minutes after this mesoscale discussion was put out, which included northeastern Deltaland, east-central Florence, much of Iredale, and much of eastern Valencia. Around 30 minutes later, the first tornado warnings were issued, and tornadoes began touching down, primarily in Valencia. The first tornado, which was rated EF4, to touch down in this area was the longest tracked tornado of the whole outbreak, lasting from Northumberland County, Valencia, to Woodland County, Iredale. This tornado passed just miles to the west of the city of Rockbridge, Iredale. Later, another strong long-tracked EF4 tornado moved directly through Windom, Florence, destroying a large portion of the community. Farther to the southeast, discrete supercell development was much more widespread with several forming in northern Deltaland and central Valencia, producing some hail and gusty winds before quickly becoming tornadic as they moved eastward into eastern Valencia. The strongest tornado of the outbreak occurred here, an EF5 tornado, which began in Huntingdon County, Valencia. The tornado directly hit the town of Chesterfield, Valencia before going on to later impact the city of Twisting Elm, Valencia and eventually the Bradford County Power Plant, which is where the strongest damage would occur. The power plant was partially destroyed, and fearing a nuclear meltdown, areas within a few hundred miles of the plant were placed under an evacuation immediate alert. This tornado continued on and prompted several tornado emergencies in Valencia. The tornado eventually hit suburbs of Meridian, Valencia before moving offshore and dissipating. Another strong tornado impacted northern Deltaland, which directly hit the town of Alpine, Deltaland as an EF4.
Confirmed tornadoes
| Rating | Amount |
|---|---|
| EFU | 0 |
| EF0 | 0 |
| EF1 | 0 |
| EF2 | 0 |
| EF3 | 0 |
| EF4 | 3 |
| EF5 | 1 |
The tornadoes listed here go in order of intensity. Only EF3+ tornadoes are mentioned.
Bradford County Power Plant EF5
This long-tracked, EF5 wedge tornado developed just southwest of the town of Chesterfield, Valencia, The tornado directly hit the town before continuing northeast, eventually entering the city of Twisting Elm, Valencia causing EF5 damage, and eventually the Bradford County Power Plant, which is where the strongest damage would occur. The power plant was partially destroyed, and fearing a nuclear meltdown, areas within a few hundred miles of the plant were placed under an evacuation immediate alert. Once the tornado impacted the power plant, it shifted directions, now heading east instead of north/northeast. The tornado eventually began quickly moving east and hit Belmont, Valencia and Bellview, Valencia before moving offshore and dissipating. There were 72 fatalities and 1,485 injuries with this tornado.
Northumberland County, Valencia to Woodland County, Iredale EF4
This long-tracked, EF4 wedge tornado developed southwest of the town of Cyclone City, Valencia and intensified quickly, causing EF3 damage north of the town. The tornado then continued northeast over mainly rural areas of Potter and Tioga counties before causing a few cars to flip over, causing 3 deaths, as it crossed Fictonia Route 4. Eventually, the tornado crossed into mainly rural areas again as it entered Goodland County, Iredale. The tornado passed just miles west of the city of Rockbridge, Iredale. Eventually, the tornado passed directly through the town of Moshannon, Iredale, causing EF4 damage. Eventually, the tornado roped out just southwest of College Station, Iredale. The tornado killed 7 and injured 42.
Windom, Florence EF4
This high-end EF4 wedge tornado developed in Winchester County, Florence extremely quickly and rapidly intensified and directly hit the town of Windom, Florence as an EF4 just minutes after forming. The tornado then continued northeast, entering rural areas of Florence and causing few areas of damage. The tornado killed 1 and injured 14.
Alpine, Deltaland EF4
This high-end EF4 wedge tornado developed in central Livingston County, Deltaland, and moved directly east. The tornado moved through extremely rural areas and did not cause any damage until it entered Alpine County, Deltaland where the town of [[Alpine, Deltaland] was directly hit, causing EF4 damage. The tornado continued east into [[Schuyler County, Deltaland] causing some damage along Fictonia Route 4 and eventually Interstate 95 where 5 cars would be flipped, and 4 deaths would occur due to the tornado. The tornado killed 5 and injured 17.