Georgeland legislative election, 2007

The 2007 general election in Georgeland will be fought between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands and the opposition Conservative Party of Georgeland. The Liberal Democrats will be seeking a third term in office under that name, and Prime Minister Zoe Parker will be seeking her first electoral victory. The Opposition will be attempting to gain power in a non-caretaker capacity for the first time in thirteen years.
At the 2005 election, the Tories gained ten seats, for a total of 122. The government lost five for a total of 137; the LDP majority in the House of Commons is thirteen. To win, the Conservatives will have to capture nine seats, which is perfectly within the realm of possibility. The size of the House of Commons is expected to be increased following a redistribution in 2007; the new House of Commons will contain 265 members.
Prime Minister Parker announced in 2007 that the election will probably be a double dissolution - that is, both houses of Parliament will be dissolved, leading to an election of the full Senate. Normally this requires legislation to be rejected by either House twice; however, Parker said the government would seek to hold a dissolution with the consent of the State Governors; this is technically constitutional, but has never before been done.

Timetable

Georgeland's elections are not presently fixed. However, in January 2007 the government made it very clear that they intended to hold the election "in the latter half" of 2007, and that future elections would be held on a fixed date. The latest date at which an election can be held is three years from the first sitting of the current House; May 6, 2008.

Notable seats

The nine most marginal LDP-held seats, those most likely to fall to the Opposition with only a small swing, are:

1. McGann, Scoita (Duncan Keyes); 0.1%
2. Humphries, WM (Tina Jones); 0.3%
3. Bartlett, Capitalia (Aida Justin); 0.3%
4. Skinner, EM (Al Slattery); 0.5%
5. Cunningham, EM (Dolores Colson); 0.7%
6. Kingston, Bradmarch (Sophia Edwards); 1.0%
7. Murray, EM (Chris Lendeldt); 1.2%
8. Earlich, WM (Tony Parkman); 1.3%
9. Northbay, WM (Tony Elmer); 1.3%

A Tory gain of 1.3% of the two-party preferred vote across all states (a "uniform swing of 1.3%) would therefore be enough to gain government for the Opposition. However, several Tory seats are below this threshold; the second-most marginal seat in the country, Pearmont, is held by incumbent Susanne Sewell by just 0.2%.
Present predictions based on polling data show a probable mean nationwide swing of between 2.4% to 4.7%, which would be enough to win between 15 and 30 seats. It should be noted swings are never uniform nation-wide.

Retiring members

Confirmed

• Fred Osbourne (Conservative, Stonehouse): In December 2006, Osbourne announced he would not be seeking preselection to contest his seat at the election.
• Stephen Cole (Conservative, Hanover): Cole announced in 2005 that his current term of office in his seat, which he has held since 1967, would be his last.
• Lydia Banker (Conservative, Charlton: Though only in her second term, Banker announced in November 2006 she would not contest her seat again due to the death of her husband.
• Donna Bailey (LDP, Follett): Bailey announced she would not recontest in May 2006.
• Andrew Hindle (LDP, Riverside): The former Speaker has announced his retirement 'for personal reasons'.
• Jeffrey Blackburn (LDP, Deane): Blackburn has been suffering from cancer - though currently in remission, he is leaving politics at the next election.
• Bill Williamson (LDP, Romphumburg): The incumbent Speaker announced his retirement in January 2007.
• Neil Ferguson, (Conservative, Norwich): Announced retirement January 30, 2007
• George Forrester, (LDP, Edwards): Announced retirement February 6, 2007
• Sen. Alan Swan (LDP, Scoita): Announced retirement February 7, 2007

Potential

• Sen. Freddie Nugent (LDP, West Mainland) will turn 72 in 2007 and is widely suspected not to seek re-election. Nugent has only served in the Senate since 2005, having formerly been a member of the House of Commons. Nugent's six-year term will not expire until January 2012; if the election is not a double-dissolution, Nugent will not have to seek re-election at all (though he could still resign from the Senate if he so chooses).

Parties and Leaders

• Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands - It is presumed that newly-elected Prime Minister Zoe Parker will be leader of the LDP by the election, with no serious challenge to her leadership anticipated.
• Conservative Party of Georgeland - Barring unforseen circumstances, Luke Macaulay is very likely to still be Tory leader by the time of the election, in which case he will be making his first attempt to become Prime Minister. Macaulay will be 45 years old.
• Georgeland Alliance - Current leader Michael Elderton is expected to remain Alliance leader for at least until the election. Though he is a well-known figure, Elderton is in danger of being targeted by both major parties and could lose his seat, the party's only House of Commons seat.
• Green Party of Georgeland - Current leader Greg Downes has never formally been elected leader, becoming party spokesman by virtue of his position as Member of Parliament. In 2006 he was reconfirmed as the party's formal spokesman by a voice vote at the national conference, and plans have been announced to hold a formalised leadership contest.