Georgeland legislative election, 2007

The 2007 general election in Georgeland will be held on Saturday, June 30, and will be fought between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands and the opposition Conservative Party of Georgeland. The Liberal Democrats will be seeking a third term in office under that name, and Prime Minister Zoe Parker will be seeking her first electoral victory. The Opposition will be attempting to gain power in a non-caretaker capacity for the first time in thirteen years.
At the 2005 election, the Tories gained ten seats, for a total of 122. The government lost five for a total of 137; the LDP majority in the House of Commons is thirteen. To win, the Conservatives will have to capture nine seats, which is perfectly within the realm of possibility. The size of the House of Commons is expected to be increased following a redistribution in 2007; the new House of Commons will contain 265 members.
Prime Minister Parker announced in 2007 that the election will probably be a double dissolution - that is, both houses of Parliament will be dissolved, leading to an election of the full Senate. Normally this requires legislation to be rejected by either House twice; however, Parker said the government would seek to hold a dissolution with the consent of the State Governors; this is technically constitutional, but has never before been done.
With the Senate's blocking of the "mini-budget", a series of bills authorising several projects, the point became moot as Parker was given recourse to hold a double dissolution within constitutional scope.

Timetable

Georgeland's elections are not presently fixed. However, in January 2007 the government made it very clear that they intended to hold the election "in the latter half" of 2007, and that future elections would be held on a fixed date. The latest date at which an election can be held is three years from the first sitting of the current House; May 6, 2008. On March 27, 2007, the House of Commons passed the Parliamentary Reform Act 2007, which fixed the date for the election as the first Friday in August - in 2007, this will be August 3. However, as the law specifically excludes double dissolutions, the government was able to set the final date of June 30, with the 2010 election to take place in August of that year.

Notable seats

The nine most marginal LDP-held seats, those most likely to fall to the Opposition with only a small swing, are:

1. McGann, Scoita (Duncan Keyes); 0.1%
2. Humphries, WM (Tina Jones); 0.3%
3. Bartlett, Capitalia (Aida Justin); 0.3%
4. Skinner, EM (Al Slattery); 0.5%
5. Cunningham, EM (Dolores Colson); 0.7%
6. Kingston, Bradmarch (Sophia Edwards); 1.0%
7. Murray, EM (Chris Lendeldt); 1.2%
8. Earlich, WM (Tony Parkman); 1.3%
9. Northbay, WM (Tony Elmer); 1.3%

A Tory gain of 1.3% of the two-party preferred vote across all states (a "uniform swing of 1.3%) would therefore be enough to gain government for the Opposition. However, several Tory seats are below this threshold; the second-most marginal seat in the country, Pearmont, is held by incumbent Susanne Sewell by just 0.2%.
Present predictions based on polling data show a probable mean nationwide swing of between 2.4% to 4.7%, which would be enough to win between 15 and 30 seats. It should be noted swings are never uniform nation-wide.

Retiring members

• Fred Osbourne (Conservative, Stonehouse): In December 2006, Osbourne announced he would not be seeking preselection to contest his seat at the election.
• Stephen Cole (Conservative, Hanover): Cole announced in 2005 that his current term of office in his seat, which he has held since 1967, would be his last.
• Lydia Banker (Conservative, Charlton: Though only in her second term, Banker announced in November 2006 she would not contest her seat again due to the death of her husband.
• Donna Bailey (LDP, Follett): Bailey announced she would not recontest in May 2006.
• Andrew Hindle (LDP, Riverside): The former Speaker has announced his retirement 'for personal reasons'.
• Jeffrey Blackburn (LDP, Deane): Blackburn has been suffering from cancer - though currently in remission, he is leaving politics at the next election.
• Bill Williamson (LDP, Romphumburg): The incumbent Speaker announced his retirement in January 2007.
• Neil Ferguson, (Conservative, Norwich): Announced retirement January 30, 2007
• George Forrester, (LDP, Edwards): Announced retirement February 6, 2007
• Sen. Alan Swan (LDP, Scoita): Announced retirement February 7, 2007\

Parties and Leaders

• Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands - Zoe Parker, 46, has been leader of the governing LDP and Prime Minister since July 30, 2005. Parker's public image has softened somewhat since her ascention to the country's highest office, but her government has been marred by a number of serious scandals and a perception that she and her government are arrogant and aggressive. Parker will be fighting for election as Prime Minister in her own right. Parker is Georgeland's first female Prime Minister.
• Conservative Party of Georgeland - Luke Macaulay, 43, took over leadership of the Opposition in June 2006 after the unexpected and sudden death of his predecessor, Sam Richardson. Macaulay is considered the front-runner in most polls. A political moderate, Macaulay has attempted to redraw the Conservatives as a more centrist, responsible party and shift the image of the party away from the "blustering reactionary" viewpoint that has characterised it in the past.
• Georgeland Alliance - Michael Elderton, 60, will lead the Alliance into its second election. The former Prime Minister is a well-known figure, but Elderton is potentially in danger of losing his seat of Smithfield, as it has been targeted by both major parties. Most polls, however, show Elderton retaining his seat.
  
• Green Party of Georgeland - Current leader Greg Downes, ??, was formally elected as his party's leader in 2006. Downes will not recontest his formerly-held seat of Pamby, instead contesting the Senate as the lead candidate for the Green ticket in East Mainland.

Results

House of Commons
Registered Voters	19,645,674
Votes Cast	TBA		Turnout	TBA	TBA
Informal Votes	TBA		Informal %	TBA	TBA
Party	Leader	Primary Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
Liberal Democratic Party of the United Islands	Zoe Parker	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Conservative Party of Georgeland	Luke Macaulay	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Georgeland Alliance	Michael Elderton	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Green Party of Georgeland	Greg Downes	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Other	Various	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Total		TBA				265