2018 Antillean elections

  

2018 Antillean elections

Midterm elections
Election day	November 6
Incumbent president	Michael Abarough (Federalist)
Next Congress	18th National Assembly of the United Commonwealth
Senate elections
Overall control	Federalist hold
Seats contested	All TBD out of 28 elected Senators
Net seat change	Civic Democratic +TBD
House elections
Overall control	Federalist hold
Seats contested	All 234 seats of the House
Net seat change	Civic Democratic +TBD

The 2018 Antillean elections occurred on November 6, 2018, for TBD seats in the United Commonwealth Senate and all elected seats in the House of Representatives, along with all four provisional commonwealth legislatures, and several local elections for mayors and other municipal officials. These midterm elections occurred during the middle of the second term of Federalist President Michael Abarough. While the Federalists retained control of both the Senate and the House, it was marked by significant gains by the Civic Democrats, especially in the House of Representatives. The Civic Democrats gained TBD seats in the House, some of them were notably flipped from the Federalists in typically stronghold regions. The election also marked the highest voter turnout for a midterm election since 2006.

Because of the unprecedented gains made in 2018 by the Civic Democratic Party, the election was widely characterized as a "blue wave" election by the Antillean and foreign media, and it included several Civic Democratic upset victories over Federalist incumbents. The Civic Democrats also took control of three out of four provisional commonwealth legislatures, making it the first time since the start of the democratization of the Antilles in 1983 that the Federalists did not control or held pluralities in at least three of the four of the commonwealth legislatures. The 2018 midterms created speculation over the next two years that in the 2020 Antillean elections, which would include the presidential election and gubernatorial elections, the Civic Democrats would be posed to expand their gains.

Issues, background, and campaigning

Major issues this election cycle included income inequality, the economy, corporate influence in civil government, and foreign relations pertaining to the Conference of American States. The Civic Democratic Party, which had been reeling from a string of defeats since 2012, entered the 2018 elections with a reinvigoated outlook, the product of a new coehsive platform organized by House Minority Leader William Abernathy. While officially the party took a moderate stance on a number of issues, many Civic Democrats running for office supported progressive platforms, which commonly included the establishment of a federal minimum wage, limiting corporate influence in politics, and more controversially legalizing labor unions.

It was noted that the Federalist Party campaign for the 2018 elections were "unusually disorganized". The party declined to created a new party platform, electing to continue to the policies proposed in the 2016 platform. Many Federalists campaigned solely on their differences with the Civic Democrats, with many accusing their opponants of harboring "socialist sympathies". Following the election cycle, Speaker of the House Baron Avery acknowledge the lackluster campaign put on by his party, saying that they were "too comfortable" winning by large margins with little effort since the red wave of 2012.

Senate elections summary

Main article: 2018 Antillean Senate elections

House elections summary

Main article: 2018 Antillean House of Representatives elections

Local elections summary

Main articles: 2018 Antillean parish elections and 2018 Antillean mayoral elections

Aftermath and reactions

The results were interpreted as a historic upset for the Federalist Party, which affected the 2020 Federalist primaries by assisting in the rise of Arian Lawrence as the nominee in the 2020 presidential election. Rising politicians in the party, most notably Lawrence, blamed President Michael Abarough and the traditional party establishment for having mishandled the midterm campaign and having a lackluster presidency in general. Many analysts noted that the Federalist underperformance in the 2018 midterms greatly contributed to Lawrence's victory over Robert Kozlowski in the 2020 primary, as many voters saw the elections as evidence that the party needed a change in the direction and leadership.

Baron Avery, the Federalist speaker of the House of Representatives, stated afterwards that the Civic Democrats "performed much better than expected." The Civic Democrats, having been formed as a unified party in 2017, achieved in uniting the opposition to the Federalists behind one major party for the first time since 1992. Civic Democratic House Minority Leader William Abernathy emerged in the media as one of the party's leading politicians, being credited as having organized the Civic Democratic campaign for the midterms. He became visible while campaigning for numerous state and federal candidates throughout the country. In December 2018, a political action committee was formed by Abernathy's supporters for a potential run as the 2020 Civic Democratic nominee.

Table of results

	Before 2018 midterm				After 2018 midterm
Commonwealth	Governor	Common. leg.	House	Senate	Governor	Common. leg.	House	Senate
Cuba	Federalist (No Election)	Federalist	Federalist +TBD	Federalist	Federalist (No Election)	Civic Democratic	Federalist +TBD	Split
Hispaniola	Federalist (No Election)	Federalist (No Election)	Federalist +TBD	Federalist	Federalist (No Election)	Federalist (No Election)	Federalist +TBD	Federalist
Puerto Rico	Civic Democratic (No Election)	Federalist	Federalist +TBD	Split (No election)	Civic Democratic (No Election)	Civic Democratic	Federalist	Split (No election)
Virgin Islands	Civic Democratic (No Election)	Federalist	Civic Democratic 1-0	Split	Civic Democratic (No Election)	Civic Democratic	Civic Democratic 1-0	Split