2017 Rainian federal election

Rainian House of Representatives election, 2017
135 seats in the House of Representatives
Turnout	67.26% ( 4.42%; 12,484,859 votes)
	File:Rainier election map 2017.png

In 2017 the Rainier held a House of Representatives election Voting took place in all 135 constituencies of the House of Representatives. The date of the election was the 24^th August, held three years after the previous election.

In May 2017 Prime Minister Andrew Clarkson requested to the Governor-General Margaret Carmichael to dissolve the House of Representatives on the 24^th August 2017. The campaign began in July 2017 with the centre-right National Union Party who were defending a majority from the opposition centre-left Labour party. Other parties involved in the campaign included the left-wing Green-Left Movement and right-wing Reform party.

The incumbent Clarkson government had suffered from low polling in its second term especially following the Cash-for-Votes scandal, leading many to see the Labour party, led by Alexander Llewellyn, to be seen as early front runners. However a strong challenge from the right-wing populist Reform Party under Nicole Faulkner led to many to discuss the possibility of the retention of a right-wing government of the NUP and Reform, despite worries that the Reform party was to extreme.

The election saw a landslide for the opposition Labour party, whose 77 seats and 44.74% share of the vote being the highest since the 1999 election. The NUP in comparison suffered its worst defeat ever with its seats dropping from 70 to 42 and getting only 25.95% of the vote. In contrast the Reform Party achieved one of the best results for a third party since the 1957 election getting 13 seats and 18.85% of the vote. The Green-Left Movement kept three seats.

Following the election Llewellyn announced his intention to form a majority government whilst Clarkson announced their intention to resign.

Electoral process

Rainier uses first-past-the-post in elections. The electoral boundaries were last drawn in 2012.

Timetable

30 June	Prime Minister Andrew Clarkson announced his intention to hold an early election.
2 July	Governor-General Margaret Carmichael approves of the Prime Ministers request to hold an election.
4 July	Formal dissolution of the House of Representatives; start of campaign period.
28 July	Last day members of the public could register to vote.
1 August	Last day in which members of the public could apply for proxy voting or postal voting.
18 August	Last day for candidates to file nomination papers.
24 August	Polling day
31 August	New House of Representatives Assembled

Background

Since the 2008 House of Representatives election the National Union Party under Jennifer Redford (2008-2013) and Andrew Clarkson (2013-2017) has held government where they had to deal with the economic fallout stemming from the Great Recession. The previous red-green government of Gerald Ruben (2004-2008) had responded to the recession with economic stimulus whilst undertaking some belated welfare cuts and privatisations. The Clarkson government moved away from stimulus to undertake austerity. This included a far-reaching privatisation programme and a series of unpopular spending cuts.

The 2014 election was widely seen as a close race between the NUP and Labour, as economic growth returned albeit at a sluggish pace. The election saw Labour however fail to make serious gains as the NUP retained most of their seats. Clarkson thus continued as Prime Minister albeit on a smaller mandate.

A crash in oil prices in 2014 however saw the economy enter a technical recession causing the government to approve of more spending cuts. This alongside the election of new Labour leader Alexander Llewellyn resulted in a fall of support for the government. This was observed in several provincial elections - in 2017 the centre-right provincial government of Christy Clark in British Columbia lost its majority and was ousted from office on the 29^th June by a Labour-Green Left coalition.

Cash-for-Votes scandal

In late November 2016 it came to light that the National Union Party had embezzled over £300 million ($180,690,236.70) in public finances over a period of five years to pay for various political party campaigns under the guise of using it to promote federal projections abroad. The NUP was able to do so due to loopholes in public finance laws that allowed them to redirect money from provincial to federal governments without declaring the total sum of money received to the federal government. The details of the embezzlement quickly became known as the "Cash for Votes" scandal.

The Cash-for-votes scandal was the most serious Rainian political scandal in over a decade since the TriMet scandal and one the biggest corruption scandals ever in Rainian history. Despite calls for the Prime Minister's resignation and an early election Andrew Clarkson refused to resign stating he had no knowledge of the affair, blaming provincial governments for deliberately fudging public finances. As a result of the scandal the NUP recorded a sharp drop in popularity.

As a result of the scandal a cross-party investigation has been launched to investigate misuse of public finances with all major parties pledging to examine the issue.

Parties standing

11 parties were registered to run on the party list in the election and theoretically get a seat in the House of Representatives. However only four parties were expected to either win seats. All parties have top candidates which are seen as "prime ministerial candidates".

	Ideology	Political position	Leading candidate(s)	2013 result
National Union Party	Conservatism, Economic liberalism	Centre-right	Andrew Clarkson	76 / 135
Labour Party	Social Democracy, Trade Unionism	Centre-left	Alexander Llewellwyn	52 / 135
Reform Party	National Liberalism, Right-wing populism	Right-wing	Nicole Faulkner	4 / 135
Green-Left Movement	Eco-socialism, Left-wing populism	Left-wing	Vishvadharini Paruthy	3 / 135

Campaign

National Union Party

The NUP entered the campaign trailing the Labour Party by 20 points, being on average only 5 points ahead of the right-wing Reform party. Despite concerns over his personal unpopularity (with his net approval rating dropping to –34%) Andrew Clarkson fought his fourth campaign as NUP leader, hiring Lynton Crosby to serve as a campaign adviser. Clarkson launched the campaign on the 7^th July in Calgary where he promised that a NUP government would ensure economic stability, lower general taxation and preserving "Rainian values" such as enforcing a niqab ban, cutting foreign aid and halving total immigration to Rainier. The campaign opening was seen as a move to the natavist right by some commentators being perceived as an attempt to appeal to Reform Party voters.

Incumbent National Union leader and Prime Minister Andrew Clarkson at the first NUP rally.

Under Crosby's direction the NUP increased their presence on social media spreading posts primarily criticising the Labour party and the possibility of a red-green coalition. The NUP's campaign cost £32,144,179 ($19,549,447.47), the highest of all campaigns.

On the 10^th July Clarkson announced that once the budget deficit was eliminated the next NUP government would drastically increase infrastructure spending to modernise Rainier's transport systems. In the same speech Clarkson stated a NUP government would implement a points-based immigration system in regards to all migration.

The NUP's manifesto was launched on the 14^th July 2017. Some of the key campaign promises made included plans to introduce privatisations of the postal and telecommunication networks, cut income, corporation, capital gains and goods and services tax, eliminate the budget deficit by the next parliament, clamping down on benefit fraud, bring down net migration to below 20,000 and increase total spending on defence. As a result to economic slowdowns the NUP proposed austerity and increasing the export of "ethical oil". The manifesto stated that Rainier would take in no refugees from Syria and called for greater security operations against China including labelling it at as currency manipulator. The NUP also ruled out voting in favour of same-sex marriage but were ambiguous on whether they would hold a referendum on the matter. Whilst admitting global warming existed the NUP called for market based solutions to the problem and stated they would never impose a carbon tax whilst also defending the practice of fracking. The manifesto was said by the Daily Gazette as being the NUP's most right-wing to date and a victory for the "blue tories" in the party.

The NUP campaign had several controversies. MP for Helena Dirk Bailey was criticised when at a town hall he called for a "final solution" against Muslims, causing Bailey to be removed as a NUP candidate. Minister of Industry and Development Thomas Pullen also caused controversy when he criticised women for "not giving birth enough", which were considered to be sexist comments.

Labour party

Labour entered the election with a 20% lead over the NUP with leader Alexander Llewellyn having the highest net approval rating of all party leaders. As such they were widely seen as the front runners in the election.

The Labour campaign was based around the personal popularity of Llewellyn, with the campaign around him being described as "presidential" in character. The presidential nature of Labour's campaign was criticised especially by the NUP as focusing more on style over substance. The total spending by the Labour campaign was £25,779,140 ($15,678,357.91). Labour reportedly looked to their British counterparts 2017 campaign which had netted that party 40% of the vote as inspiration for campaigning and policy prescriptions.

Labour's first rally, held on the 5^th July in Seattle emphasised the "social fracture" that had emerged under 8 years of NUP rule and promised to increase spending to ensure a "brighter future for young people". Llewellyn stated the party would take a "flexible approach" to eliminate the deficit intending to reduce it but not at the expense of investment Labour believed was necessary. Llewellyn also promised a pragmatic approach to economic policy, stating a Labour government would neither privatise nor nationalise any industry.

Labour leader Alexander Llewellyn speaking with the Labour executive during the campaign.

Labour was the first party to release their manifesto doing so on the 9^th July. The manifesto promised to boost spending in education, health and infrastructure, eliminate tuition fees, reduce unemployment and build more affordable homes. Labour also confirmed it would raise the top rate of income tax and introduce two new tax brackets but reduce income taxation overall; they stated they would also raise the financial transaction and capital gains taxes and decrease corporation tax. In response to the economic slowdown following the 2010s oil glut Labour proposed economic stimulus and a diversification of the economy away from oil and gas exports. The manifesto also promised to pass same-sex marriage through parliament, legalise cannabis and limit immigration overall. Labour's environmental policy however was unclear - whilst expressing a desire to phase out nuclear energy and increase investment in renewable energy Labour neither committed to nor ruled out imposing carbon pricing.

The Labour manifesto also called for a reorientation in foreign relations, most prominently promote better relations with China and South Korea as well as re-examine Rainier's relationship with Saudi Arabia. However Labour also promised to maintain close cooperation with Japan and promote policies that would limit Russian aggression. Labour's manifesto was overall seen as a product of the centre-left of the party, with significant shifts to the left on education policy but a move to the right on immigration policy.

Reform party

The Reform party entered the campaign with the intention to become the largest party of the right, either leading a right-wing coalition or as the main opposition party. Previously a minor party stagnating wages, rising immigration and disillusionment with the mainstream parties led to the Reform party to strike a populist cord that resulted in their poll ratings to increase steadily over the last parliament. The Reform Party's campaign cost £17,920,215 ($10,846,274.66)

Under party leader Nicole Faulkner the Reform party endorses broadly a right-wing populist policy programme that retained the Reform party's small government, right-wing libertarian economic policies (such as supporting a flat tax, reductions in expenditure and privatising as well as endorsing social conservatism, in particular Islamophobia and opposition to immigration.

The Reform Party launched their manifesto on the 13^th July in the city of Saskatoon. The Reform Party's 2017 manifesto called for tax cuts for lower income families, privatisation of sections of the welfare system based on the Chilean model and boosting spending on the military. The Reform party also pledged to lower the retirement age and reducing tuition fees for medicine & science by raising fees for humanities instead. In foreign policy the Reform Party's foreign policy supported Israel, promoted closer ties with Russia and taking a firm line against China.

On some other issues however the Reform party followed an orthodox line, calling for an end to "political correctness", advocating for a net migration target of zero by the end of the next parliament and outright banning immigration from Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan, opposing same-sex marriage, restricting abortion rights, opposing legalisation of soft drugs, clamping down on the sale of porn and endorsing the appellation of Rainier as a Christian nation. The Reform party also challenged the scientific consensus on global warming saying the 2010s oil glut had not affected the economy adversely and that more oil drilling was needed.

Green-Left Movement

The Green-Left Movement went into the election to increase their seat share and form government with the Labour party in a red-green alliance as occurred from 2005-2008 under Gerald Ruben. The Green-Left's campaign was the least expensive of the major parties spending £9,175,566 ($5,572,093.28) due to the fact that the Green-Left Movement only takes individual donations and public funds for political parties.

The Green-Left Movement launched their campaign on the 3^rd July when leader Vishvadharini Paruthy pledged that in government the Green-Left Movement would fight for environmental policies (such as greater use of renewable energy, the ending of the "myth of ethical oil" and a phase out of nuclear energy) and pro-worker policies (such as more rights for trade unions and raising the minimum wage). Paruthy stated the 2010s oil glut had damaged the Rainian economy moreso than help it and that as a result Rainier should diversify its economy away from oil production for economic and environmental reasons.

The Green-Left Movement's manifesto was released on the 11^th July. Described by the Daily Gazette as being an approval of "tax and spend" the manifesto called for increases in the top rates of income tax, capital gains, financial transaction and corporation tax and the imposition of a carbon tax. They also proposed eliminating tuition fees, increasing spending on education, welfare, healthcare and infrastructure, re-nationalising sections of the health sector that is privatised, and clamping down on tax evasion. The Green-Left Movement also called for the legalisation of same-sex marriage and soft drugs, combating Islamaphobia and maintaining Rainier's policy of multicultralism. In terms of foreign policy, the Green-Left Movement called for a "human rights based approach" working with countries such as Canada and member states of the European Union to promote human rights abroad and severing ties with Saudi Arabia. They also called for the recognition of Palestine as a sovereign state and disavowed military interventionism. Despite calling for a more human rights based approach Green-Left said they would also seek to mend relations with Russia which had been poor under the Clarkson government. The Green-Left Movement also promised to reduce carbon emissions and redirect subsides from the fossil fuel industry to renewable energies instead.

The Green-Left Movement entered some controversy when one of its candidates, Brittany Rudd, called Israel an "apartheid state". NUP leader Andrew Clarkson criticised the Green-Left Movement for tolerating antisemetism and called for the parties public funding to be stripped from it.

Leaders debates

Rainian general election debates, 2017
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	Present Surrogate Non-invitee
			National Union	Labour	Reform	Green-Left

20 July	NTV	Mary Horn Travis Little	S Robinson	P Llewellyn	P Faulkner	P Paruthy
11 August	MNTV	David Snow	P Clarkson	P Llewellyn	NI	NI
18 August	RTVR	Joan Prebble	P Clarkson	P Llewellyn	P Faulkner	P Paruthy

Candidate viewed as "performing best" or "most convincing" in each debate
Date	Polling Firm/Source						Undecided. + No Answer	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source		! style="background:#ff8c00;"\|				Undecided. + No Answer	Lead
20 July	Yougov	-	23.3	22.9	12.5	27.8	7.9	4.5
	Election Forcast	-	28.6	25.3	12.4	23.6	5.6	3.3
	Huddlesfeild Polling	-	30.4	24.8	10.1	24.5	6.8	5.6
11 August	Yougov	32.9	-	60.7	-	-	6.4	27.8
11 August	Election Forcast	34.3	-	58.3	-	-	7.4	24
18 August	Yougov	11.6	-	32.5	24.6	18.5	5.3	7.9
	RTVR Polling	11.1	-	28.8	26.5	20.4	5.9	2.3
	Election Forecast	12.1	-	25.8	28.2	20.6	6.4	2.4
	Huddlesfeild Polling	11.5	-	28.5	26.3	20.6	5.7	2.2

Endorsements

Newspaper		Notes
Daily Gazette	Labour Party	Endorsed a Labour majority government.
Economic Times	National Union Party	Endorsed a NUP-led government and encouraged anti-Labour tactical voting.
Global Observer	Labour Party	Encouraged anti-Reform tactical voting.
Vancouver Star	Reform Party	Called for a Reform party victory.

Opinion polls

Party approval

Date	Polling Firm/Source						Oth. + No Answer	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source						Oth. + No Answer	Lead
24 Aug	2017 election result	24	44	3	19	5	3	20
17 Jul - 18 Jul	Election Forecast	24	44	2	18	5	3	20
24 Jun - 25 Jun	Election Forecast	22	49	3	17	3	4	27
17 May - 18 May	Yougov	25	45	3	19	5	3	20
14 Apl- 15 Apl	Yougov	26	44	3	18	4	2	18
3 Mar - 4 Mar	Yougov	27	40	3	18	4	3	13
19 Feb - 20 Feb	Huddlesfeild Polling	30	37	3	17	6	2	7
13 Jan - 14 Jan	Yougov	30	36	3	18	5	3	6
2017
21 Dec - 22 Dec	Yougov	25	45	3	18	3	2	20
7 Nov - 8 Nov	Yougov	29	40	3	17	4	2	11
15 Oct - 16 Oct	Yougov	30	36	3	18	4	3	6
20 Sep - 21 Sep	Yougov	33	35	3	17	3	3	2
4 Aug - 5 Aug	Yougov	38	39	3	7	4	4	1
16 Jul - 17 Jul	Yougov	35	34	5	10	6	4	1
12 Jun - 13 Jun	Yougov	34	35	5	9	7	5	1
15 May - 16 May	Yougov	35	35	5	10	6	4	Tie
24 Apl - 25 Apl	Yougov	34	37	5	8	7	5	3
17 Mar - 18 Mar	Yougov	33	36	3	10	8	5	3
11 Feb - 12 Feb	Yougov	35	36	5	8	6	5	1
23 Jan - 24 Jan	Yougov	35	36	5	9	6	4	1
2016
17 Dec - 18 Dec	Yougov	38	38	3	10	3	3	Tie
12 Nov - 13 Nov	Yougov	35	34	3	9	5	5	1
2 Oct - 3 Oct	Yougov	34	35	4	10	7	4	1
24 Sep - 25 Sep	Yougov	34	36	3	10	3	5	2
16 Aug - 17 Aug	Yougov	31	38	3	10	7	6	7
20 Jul - 21 Jul	Yougov	35	35	3	10	7	5	Tie
4 Jun - 5 Jun	Yougov	31	36	4	12	7	4	5
17 May - 18 May	Yougov	31	36	4	11	7	5	5
23 Apl - 24 Apl	Yougov	32	38	3	10	6	6	6
14 Mar - 15 Mar	Yougov	37	38	4	10	3	4	1
22 Feb - 23 Feb	Yougov	40	40	4	5	4	4	Tie
17 Jan - 18 Jan	Yougov	34	39	4	6	6	6	5
2015
7 Dec - 8 Dec	Yougov	40	37	4	3	5	5	3
25 Nov - 26 Nov	Yougov	39	38	4	5	5	4	1
23 Oct - 24 Oct	Yougov	40	37	5	4	5	3	3
20 Sep - 21 Sep	Yougov	37	40	4	5	5	4	3
13 Aug - 14 Aug	Yougov	35	43	4	7	5	1	8
27 Jul - 28 Jul	Yougov	35	43	4	7	5	1	8
6 Jun - 7 Jun	Yougov	37	40	4	7	5	2	3
9 May - 10 May	Yougov	37	38	5	8	5	2	1
13 Apl - 14 Apl	Yougov	37	35	5	8	6	2	2
2 Mar - 3 Mar	Yougov	37	34	5	8	6	1	3
22 Feb - 23 Feb	Yougov	39	34	6	8	6	2	5
12 Jan - 13 Jan	Yougov	41	34	4	10	6	2	7
2014
12 Dec - 13 Dec	Yougov	42	32	5	10	6	3	10
29 Nov - 30 Nov	Yougov	42	33	5	10	6	3	9
15 Oct - 16 Oct	Yougov	41	32	10	9	5	1	9
20 Sep - 21 Sep	Yougov	43	32	9	7	5	1	11
29 Aug - 30 Aug	Yougov	44	32	10	7	5	1	12
28 Aug	2014 election result	42	35	7	6	5	4	7

Seat projections

Parties		Election Forecast	Huddlesfeild Polling	Yougov
	National Union	39	49	46
	Labour	79	66	75
	Reform	14	16	10
	Green-Left Movement	3	4	4
Result		Labour Party Majority	Hung parliament Labour Party plurality	Labour Party Majority

Preferred prime minister

Date	Polling Firm/Source					Oth. + No Answer	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source					Oth. + No Answer	Lead
24 Aug - 25 Aug	Yougov	20.1	40.4	24.8	5.4	7.5	15.6
12 Aug - 13 Aug	Election Forecast	18.9	36.7	29.2	8.5	4.3	7.5
28 Jul - 29 Jul	Yougov	22.6	30.4	28.9	9.5	6.3	1.5
18 Jul - 19 Jul	Election Forecast	24.9	28.4	28.6	10.3	5.7	0.2
13 Jul - 14 Jul	Huddlesfeild Polling	24.2	28.6	30.7	9.6	5.2	2.1
30 Jun - 1 Jul	Yougov	23.8	29.6	29.2	10.5	5.6	0.4

Exit poll

An exit poll was released at 10PM when the last ballot was cast. The poll confirmed pollsters predictions that the Labour party would get over 40% of the vote and that the NUP would suffer large losses.

	Seats	Change
Labour Party	80	28
National Union Party	40	36
Reform Party	13	9
Green-Left Movement	3	-

Results

The election saw a landslide victory for the opposition Labour party, which achieved 43.94% of the vote and 138 seats - its best result since 1999. Labour performed especially well in the coastal provinces of British Columbia, Oregon and Cascadia almost sweeping the city of Seattle.

The National Union Party recorded its worst result ever in its history, getting only 24.34% of the vote and 42 seats.

The Reform party meanwhile achieved its best result in it history, winning a majority of votes in Idaho and becoming the third largest party with 18.85% of the vote and 13 seats - the best result for a third party since the 1995 election.

The Green-Left Movement saw a small drop in its share of the vote from 4.99% to 4.87% - however it kept its three seats.

The NUP's vote share was the worst for a sitting government in over 20 years, being lower than Labour's 27.80% in 2009 but ahead of the NUP's 1996 vote share of 25.99%. Labour's 5 million votes were the most received by a party in Rainian history.

Summary of 2017 House of Representatives election results
Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–

	Labour	5,485,370	44.74%	77	+25
	National Union Party	3,039,294	25.95%	44	-32
	Reform Party	2,353,201	18.85%	11	+7
	Green-Left Movement	607,514	4.87%	3	-
	Other	512,402	4.11%	0	–
Invalid/blank votes		187,078	–	–	–
Total		12,484,859	100	136	–
Registered voters/turnout		18,562,085	67.26%	–	–

Popular Vote

Labour			44.74%
National Union			25.95%
Reform			18.85%
Green-Left			4.87%
Other			4.11%

Parliamentary seats

Labour			57.04%
National Union			31.11%
Reform			9.63%
Green-Left			2.22%

Aftermath

Government formation

Following the election Labour leader Alexander Llewellyn hailed the result as proof that the electorate endorsed change in a progressive direction and stated Labour was "ready for government". Labour's majority meant that on the 31st August when parliament reopened Llewellyn was duly elected prime minister forming a cabinet consisting entirely of Labour ministers. A new speaker, Diane Kwong of the Labour Party, was also inaugurated as her predecessor Harris Northcoate had stepped down as a member of the Representatives prior to the election.

Party leadership changes

Following the announcement of the election results Clarkson announced his immediate resignation from the post of National Union Party taking responsibility for the defeat. The NUP subsequently named Mary Towers as interim leader until a leadership election could be held. Template:Elections in Rainier

2017 Rainian federal election

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