Sino-Manchurian conflict

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Sino-Manchurian conflict
DateFebruary 25, 2014 – present
Location
Result

Ongoing

Territorial
changes
Annexation of Rehe Province by the Republic of China
Belligerents
China China
Supported by:
Flag of the CIS.svg SCO
Manchuria Manchuria
Supported by:
Conference of American States Conference of American States
Flag of IPTO.svg IPTO
Commanders and leaders
Commander-in-Chief Flag of the Republic of China.svg Zhao Meijin (2020-present)
Commander-in-Chief Flag of the Republic of China.svg Ren Longyun (2000–2020)
Seal of the Premier of Manchuria.png Liu Zhou
Units involved

Manchuria Manchurian National Defense Forces

China Republic of China Armed Forces

The Sino-Manchurian conflict, also known as the Second Sino-Manchurian War and colloquially as the Manchurian crisis, is an ongoing geopolitical and low-level military conflict between the Republic of China and the Manchu Republic which began on February 25, 2014. The conflict has largely been based in East Asia, specifically the international border between China and Manchuria and the Yellow Sea.

The conflict started after Rehe Province, previously a province of Manchuria was invaded and annexed by China following escalating tensions over protests and riots admist tension between the largely Han Chinese population and the mostly Ethnic Manchu run provincial government. The act was condmened by the League of Nations and the wider international community with many sanctions being placed against China, but their scope was reduced due to the size and influence of the Chinese economy on the wider global economy. When Rehe voted to join China in a controversial referendum, Manchuria denounced it as illegitimate with an early presidential election being held in April with Liu Zhou being elected President of Manchuria. Beginning in 2014, both China and Manchuria would deploy military units to their border and clashes would begin that continue into the present day. These border clashes primarily occur between either the boarder guards or army units from both nations with the most intense case being the ten-day long border clashes in January 2019.

On June 9 2015, the Conference of American States would agree to deploy a battlegroup to Manchuria to protect the nation in the form of CAS Forces – Manchuria whose stated goal is to train, arm, and assist the Manchu National Defense Forces and to protect Manchuria from future Chinese aggression being a defensive military force. Manchuria received over $7 billion in weapons and equipment from the CAS as of 2020. Following the 2019 Manchurian presidential election, Liu would pursue an attempt at reconciliation and normalizing relations between the two countries commonly known as the China–Manchuria reconciliation process. As of 2021, the conflict remains ongoing with the border being partially demilitarized, though skirmishes are still a threat and recurring. The conflict has seen Manchuria become an candidate state for the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization and seeks to acquire full-membership, a goal that has been viewed as a major threat to China.

As part of the reconciliation process, summits have been held with the first one occuring in Moscow, Russia, in November. A second summit was held in March 2021 between the Kingdom of Sierra and China as part of an effort to both fix relations and to de-escalate in Manchuria which saw Sierra drop its support for Manchurian membership in the IPTO under Prime Minister Susan Kwon, much to the dismay and backlash from the Manchurian public. In December, a second summit was held between Chinese and Manchurian diplomats in Seoul, Korea, to discuss de-escalation, but talks faltered due to disputes over Rehe Province and Chinese refusal to back a proposed referendum on Rehe's status. In January 2, 2022, a massive military buildup by the Chinese military took place on Manchuria's border and has been ongoing since causing significant international-level attention and fears over a possible Chinese invasion of Manchuria.

Background

Timeline

Annexation of Rehe Province

First clashes

2018 Yellow Sea incident

Reconciliation process

Following the 2021 Chinese legislative election in January that led to a historic defeat for the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), which won the plurality of seats but not the majority, the new governing coalition announced its intentions to negotiate directly with Manchurian leaders regarding the crisis. The new government, consisting of the former opposition to the KMT, was seen as potentially a clean break in China's relations with Manchuria. Different coalition parties have had different views on the matter of China–Manchuria relations. The Democratic Progressive Party, the largest party in the coalition, has been more conciliatory to Manchurian concerns. Premier Lin Renjian, shortly after his inauguration on February 3, stated at a press conference that he wanted to meet with Manchurian officials for negotiations, potentially in a third country such as Korea. In March 2021, the Legislative Yuan of the Republic of China passed a series of administrative and constitutional reforms to create a federal parliamentary system, and also changed the administrative divisions of the country, among other things making Rehe an autonomous province of China. Many of the powers of the presidency are being given to the Premier of the Executive Yuan, the head of government. The legislation also included a provision making it illegal for the Republic of China to give up any of its territory in the future, however, at the insistence of the coalition partner Democratic Party of Socialists. Chinese President Zhao Meijin and the KMT supported that amendment.

The 2021 China–Sierra summit, held on March 18–19, in Alaska also involved a discussion between the Chinese and Sierran delegations on the Manchurian issue, and the CAS military presence in Manchuria as well as the South China Sea. On April 22, Chinese Foreign Minister Liu Jiaoren announced that Manchurian and Chinese governments are working to arrange a diplomatic meeting between Premier Lin Renjian and President Liu Zhou. During a speech, President Zhao mentioned that any country that tries to "take part of China" will "get its teeth knocked out." This was interpreted by media as being directed at Manchuria. The 2021 Chinese election created a rift in the government between the presidency and the state security agencies on one side, controlled by the KMT and regarded by some as being figureheads of former President Ren Longyun—now the Chairman of China's National Security Council—and the new parliament and cabinet, led by the Premier. Observers have called it a "dual policy" in the Chinese government.

2022–2023 border crisis

International reactions

Sanctions against China

Foreign intervention

Support for Manchuria

Support for China

Impact

In China

In Manchuria

Financial impact

See also