2022-23 Sino-Manchurian crisis

  

2022 Sino-Manchurian crisis
Part of the Sino-Manchurian conflict and the Second Cold War
Date 2 January 2022 – 11 April 2023 (1 year, 3 months, 1 week and 2 days) Location Manchuria Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Manchuria Suported by: Conference of American States NATO IPTO	China Suported by: SCO
Commanders and leaders
Liu Zhou Yu Qiang Supported by: Johann Hauptsmann Isaac Dillon Nicolas McCarty Baishan Wallace Kazuma Amamiya	Zhao Meijin Wan Kaige Dai Lin Zang Renkai Timur Zhumdilov Jiang Zuobin
Strength
350,000 Armed Forces, 550,000 Reserve Forces Training mission: 300 560 (Operation Hawkeye)	3,144,000 Armed Forces, 4,206,000 Reserve Forces 175,000–200,000 at the Manchurian border (alleged)

On 2 January 2022, China amassed around 100,000 soldiers and military equipment on the border with Manchuria, the highest military deployment near Manchuria since the annexation of Rehe Province in 2014. This has since instigated a new international crisis and is the most tense phase of the ongoing Sino–Manchurian conflict since it began. The crisis has garnered significant attention and fears of a potential Chinese invasion of Manchuria. Satellite imagery from various countries has showed the movements of armored fighting vehicles, artillery, infantry units, missiles and other heavy weaponry. A previous buildup had occurred in August 2021 with 85,000 troops, but they were withdrawn after a new summit was confirmed in December. The crisis led to the start of the Chinese invasion in April 2023.

The buildup occurred sometime after the 2021 China–Manchuria summit in Seoul, Korea, in December which ended in stalemate with the issue of Rehe and its political status causing negotiations to breakdown and no formal agreement every materializing. On January 3, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it would withdraw its military forces from the border in exchange for a legally-binding prohibition on Manchuria joining the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization and the removal of CAS Forces – Manchuria, the military mission of the Conference of American States in Manchuria, from the country. These demands were rejected by the CAS and its member states and have warned of further international sanctions. Personal talks between Prime Minister Susan Kwon of Sierra and Chinese President Zhao Meijin were held on January 10, and bilateral talks were held between Chinese and CAS delegations on January 14 but both of the attempts failed to de-escalate the crisis. On January 25, Chinese Premier Wan Kaige and Foreign Minister Dai Lin met with Prime Minister Susan Kwon and Foreign Minister Maggie Chan for further discussions about the Chinese proposal. The Sierran delegation announced that its written response to the Chinese draft would be delivered to the Chinese on January 30.

Negotiations continued for months, but at the same time both sides maintained a large presence of troops and China built infrastructure in the border region to allow for a rapid redeployment from the Beijing and Mongolia Military Regions to the Manchurian frontier. The pace of the talks picked up after the summer of 2022, from October to December 2022. During that period both sides briefly cooperated amidst the 2022 Damascus offensive and following airlift from Syria as the CAS-backed government there collapsed, making commentators believe that a deal on the concerns of both sides was possible. However, no breakthrough was made regardless, and in April 2023 China declared the start of a military operation against Manchuria, sending its troops into the country. The Manchurian crisis has been described by various commentators as the most intense standoff since the end of the Cold War in the 1990s and early 2000s, along with the Caribbean diplomatic crisis that began almost at the same time as escalation of the Manchurian crisis.

Background

Main articles: Sino-Manchurian conflict and Manchuria and the IPTO

Conflict between China and Manchuria has been a recurring trend in East Asia since the early 20th century after Manchuria broke off and became an independent state in the late 1910s. The secession of Manchuria and its backing by the Empire of Japan caused many in China to view it as an illegitimate state and whose existence was guaranteed only by foreign backing, mainly from Japan and the China–Japan Basic Treaty after the Second Sino-Japanese War. Tensions between the two states decreased after the Chinese Civil War ended with the establishment of the People's Republic of China by the Chinese Communist Party which inspired the Manchurian Revolution and the creation of the Manchu People's Republic under the Communist Party of Manchuria in 1946. Ideological solidarity was promoted by Mao Zedong during his tenure as China's paramount leader along with Manchurian leader and party First Secretary Qian Yiu-tong, however this would falter sometime after Mao's death and tensions soon rose from Manchuria seeking support from the United Commonwealth to revanchism growing in the CCP once more, especially after the October Crisis began in 1979. During the late 1980s and 1990s, especially after the rise of the reformist General Secretary Song Kun, tensions between the two countries deescalated.

After the Revolutions of 2000 and the collapse of the communist regimes in both China and Manchuria, new governments were elected as both nations sought to return to democracy after years of communist rule. Early on in his presidency, Ren Longyun renewed relations with Manchuria and supported reconciliation with the country. This would continue for much of his presidency even after the Sino–Burmese War of 2009, but was abandoned in 2014 when pro-Chinese protests and riots broke out in Rehe Province calling for special autonomy to be given. In response and per the approval from the National Security Council, the Republic of China Army invaded and annexed Rehe overwhelming the defenders and annexing it into China from Manchuria, beginning the ongoing conflict between the two nations since 2014. The annexation was partly motivated by the fact that Manchuria had desired to join the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization, a political and military alliance consisting of East Asian and North American states lead by the Kingdom of Sierra. Ren Longyun, having shifted his foreign policy towards expanding Chinese power and influence in opposition towards the historic influence of western powers, invaded and sought to prevent Manchuria from joining the IPTO. This would remain part of China's foreign policy even after Zhao Meijin was elected president in 2020 by which Sino-Western tensions had continued to grow even during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reconciliation attempts

Main articles: China–Manchuria relations and China–Manchuria reconciliation process

In March 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Nazareth Ontoria-Diaz met with Vice Premier Li Zhen in Anchorage, Alaska, in prolific diplomatic summit seeking to de-escalate and renew diplomatic relations between China and Sierra. The summit was viewed as a success, but it controversially saw Sierra drop its support for Manchurian membership in the IPTO causing backlash, especially in Manchuria with its government calling for a new summit with Chinese leaders to discuss regional tensions claiming that said issues cannot be discussed if Manchurian representatives are not present. It also reiterated its stance that it had the right to join the IPTO and would still pursue IPTO membership despite the Sierran Social Democrats' decision to drop said commitment, which was also heavily criticized in Sierra by the Royalists.

Timeline

Buildup and escalation (January 2022)

Starting on January 2, Western, Japanese, and Korean media began reporting that satellite imagery indicated a large build-up of troops and infrastructure by the Republic of China Armed Forces in northern Zhili province and in Rehe, near China's international border with Manchuria. The Chinese government denied these claims, stating that these forces had already been present in the region since the previous deployment in August 2021 and nothing had changed, while reiterating its long-held position that the capital Beijing was threatened by Manchurian and CAS forces very not far away. Sierran Prime Minister Susan Kwon addressed the issue on January 5 by revealing that the Royal Intelligence Agency confirmed that a build-up was taking place.

Renewed escalation to war (January–April 2023)

Main article: Chinese invasion of Manchuria

Reactions

Main article: Reactions to the 2022 Sino-Manchurian crisis

See also

• China–IPTO relations
• Manchuria–NTO relations
• China–Conference of American States relations
• October Crisis
• Irish Missile Crisis