2022 Damascus offensive
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The Syrian opposition carried out a military offensive starting on October 1, 2022, that led to the fall of the Syrian Republic and the restoration of the Ba'athist Syrian Arab Republic with the fall of Damascus on December 7, 2022. It was referred to as Operation Conquest by the Ba'athists and Operation Damascus Shield by the former Syrian National Armed Forces.
The offensive was characterized by a rapid opposition advance in the rural countryside, with smaller towns and villages being captured before surrounding major cities. The operation started in in central and eastern Syria, traditionally the most sympathetic parts of the country to the opposition. Mosul was the first major city to fall to the Syrian Arab Army and its allies, the capital of the Ninawa Governorate, taken on November 2. This was followed during the month of November by the fall of the majority of central and eastern Syria to the Ba'athist insurgency. The two main roads connecting the eastern and western parts of Syria, the M4 highway in the north and the M20 highway in the south, were cut off in early November, leaving the Syrian National Army garrisons in the east cut off from direct reinforcements. In this way, by the end of November only the Saladin Governorate remained largely under Syrian National Army control in the east, while in the west it held only the two coastal governorates of Latakia and Tartus, along a small region connecting them to the capital Damascus in the south. In early December the corridor connecting Damascus to the coast was closed and the city itself was surrounded before much of the senior government leadership fled the country, leading to the Ba'ath Party forces entering the capital and capturing it on December 7.
The success of the operation resulted in the capitulation of the CAS-backed government in Syria and the end of the Syrian Civil War with a Ba'athist victory. The Damascus offensive is seen by many media commentators and analysts as an example of the rise of illiberalism and the decline of Anglo-American power that characterizes international relations in the 2020s, along with the Sino-Manchurian conflict and the Caribbean crisis. The reasons for the rapid collapse of the Syrian government forces, which nominally outnumbered the Ba'ath opposition, was seen as corruption, cronyism, inefficiency, along with the opposition using effective tactics to isolate government strongholds by taking over the countryside.
Background
On 1 May 2022, it was declared that the International Security Assistance Force completed its mission in Syria and would begin withdrawing the remaining 14,000 foreign troops from the country, following the peace plan signed on 1 April 2022 between representatives of the Syrian Revolutionary Command Council and the Government of Sierra, with the approval of Sierran Prime Minister Susan Kwon. By October 2022 the ISAF had 2,500 troops remaining in the country, mostly in and around Damascus, with the majority of them being Sierran. The Revolutionary Command Council Chairman, Khalifa al-Malki, declared the start of their offensive against the Syrian government on 1 October as he believed that the government had breached its part of the deal to include a sufficient number of the opposition's representatives in senior posts, as well as their continued refusal to grant a general amnesty for opposition members.
Offensive
October
By the end of October the Syrian opposition had captured 52 districts, in many cases through negotiating with local leaders to surrender and accept Syrian Arab Army (SAA) control of the area. On one occasion, the entire 20th Mechanized Division of the government forces, the Syrian National Army (SNA), surrendered to the opposition en masse in Al-Anbar. In other parts of Eastern Syria they faced fierce resistance, such as in Erbil Governorate, but due to the lack of reinforcements or supplies the pro-government garrisons there became isolated by the end of the month. President Saadallah al-Kuzbari consolidated the command structure in that part of the country by appointing General Abdalla Asaad, former 7th Corps commander, as commanding general of the Eastern Syria theater. Many smaller towns in the region fell, and several SNA and Syrian Border Police units surrendered, but a combination of SNA and Syrian National Defense Forces (NDF) brigades were able to hold out in Saladin Governorate and the Deir ez-Zor Governorate. The NDF launched a counterattack from Saladin Governorate into Al-Anbar on October 19, but it was repelled by the 30th.
In Western Syria, parts of the Hama, Aleppo, Homs, Idlib, and Daraa Governorates were captured by the Syrian Arab Army. On October 24, the NDF, SNA, and Syrian police launched a counterattack from the Damascus area against opposition forces in Daraa, located just south of the capital. The offensive stalled by the end of the month as the opposition defended its lines in the southern governorates along the border with Palestine.
A Sierran aircraft carrier group, along with ships from the Northern Treaty Organization's Standing Naval Force Western Europe have been present in the eastern Mediterranean near the Syrian coast. General John Kingston, commanding general of Sierran Central Command, announced that the task group off the coast was there strictly for assisting in the evacuation of Western citizens in Syria and the remaining ISAF assets, mostly around Damascus. The Syrian Navy, from its bases in mostly government-controlled Latakia Governorate, provided rocket fire from some of its ships against ground targets.
An anonymous Syrian Defense Ministry official told the Porciúncula Times and the BBC in late October that the Sierran Royal Air Force and other ISAF air forces stopped their attacks against the opposition, as part of the peace deal signed in 2021. The leak was interpreted as a sign of disagreements between the Syrian government and the Kwon ministry. The Syrian Air Force has faced difficulties operating because of a lack of maintenance, spare parts, and other equipment, but carried out airstrikes on some opposition targets during October 2022.
November
At the start of the month, 80% of Syria east of the Euphrates river had been captured by Ba'athist and other opposition forces. After the capture of Mosul on November 2, 2022, the capital of Ninawa Governorate, President al-Kuzbari removed from his post the Minister of Defense, General Joseph Mirza, replacing him with Raed Al-Jubouri. Mirza was reassigned as the Damascus Governorate defense commander and military governor. The fall of Ninawa, Kirkuk, Deir ez-Zor, Al Anbar, and Al-Hasakah provinces left Erbil and Saladin as the two remaining government strongholds in the east by 15 November, with Iraq reporting in early November that much of the Syrian-Iraqi border under opposition control. General Asaad led elements of the SNA and NDF to consolidate their positions in the region, with the Syrian Air Force providing support by airlifting supplies and carrying out airstrikes, in coordination with the Royal Iraqi Air Force.
In Central Syria, on 18 November the Syrian Arab Army and the Ba'ath Party Military Shield Force launched attacks across the eastern part of Homs Governorate towards Palmyra, with the goal of turning south along the M20 highway until they reached Damascus. As-Sukhnah and Arak were captured by November 23, leaving opposition forces outside of Palmyra. In the northeast, most of Idlib and parts of Aleppo Governorate was captured by Ba'athist forces, who then cut off the M4 highway on November 20 that went south from Aleppo city to Damascus and other government-held parts of Western Syria. The Battle of Aleppo turned into a drawn-out siege as the SNA and NDF defenders engaged the Syrian opposition in house-to-house fighting. By November 24, the last remaining supply lines to Aleppo city were closed off by opposition offensives in the rural countryside to the south and southeast, with the SNA reportedly preparing to launch a break-out attempt.
Palmyra was captured from SNA forces after fierce fighting on November 23, the last major settlement along the M20 highway before reaching the capital. General Joseph Mirza announced that Damascus and the Rif Dimashq Governorate (which entirely surrounds the capital in southeast Syria) would be turned into a fortress as Ba'athist troops began advancing from the northeast and from the south, while a supply line to mostly government-controlled Homs and coastal Latakia and Tartus remained open to the northwest. Idlib, the capital of Idlib Governorate, was captured by opposition troops on November 24, and this was followed by the city of Hama (Hama Governorate) on November 27 as a rebel offensive from Idlib and Aleppo provinces made gains. Most of the territory of the Quneitra, Daraa, and As Suwayda Governorates just south of Damascus was captured by the 25th. By the end of November, in Western Syria only the provinces of Latakia, Tartus, Rif Dimashq, Damascus, and a narrow territory of eastern Hama and Homs (including both of their provincial capitals) remained under government control. In Eastern Syria only the Saladin Governorate remained mostly held by the government SNA and NDF forces, after the leaders of the Syrian Kurdistan Region made deals with the opposition.
The Sierran Royal Intelligence Agency published a report on November 24 that estimated the Syrian government could hold out for "at least three months" without ISAF military support.
Start of CAS airlifts
Shortly after the Battle of Aleppo had begun, the American Military Staff of the Combined Armed Forces of America had announced that a coordinated airlift operation between member states of the Conference of American States had begun in Damascus with the intent on evacuating all CAS foreign nationals still living in Syria. Taking place at the Damascus International Airport and working in conjunction with the militaries of individual CAS member states and the remaining 2,500 ISAF soldiers, the operation officially began on the evening of November 23 and the first troops were deployed from bases in Brazoria, the Kingdom of Sierra, Manitoba, Brazil and Argentina to the country and ISAF forces began organizing the evacuation of all foreign nations from the country. The operation will also include Syrian interpretors and other personnel who supported the ISAF during the civil war along with their families. The evacuation of civilian personnel from embassies and other diplomatic outposts also began on November 24 as well, however said embassies are to remain open until further notice.
The American Military Staff also stated that the withdrawal of ISAF forces will continue and any new troops coming into Syria are only to secure Damascus, the Damascus International Airport and ensure the safe evacuation of all persons evacuating the country. On November 24, the European Community announced it was planning on organizing a similar airlift operation to evacuate all European citizens and nationals from Syria and will work closely with the CAS to ensure operational success. The Eurocorps, a multinational corps-sized formation commanded at the EC level, deployed elements of the Franco-German and the Dutch-German brigades alongside CAS troops to Damascus, also to provide security at European embassies in Damascus as the evacuation is ongoing. The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) began their involvement in the airlifts on November 28.
December
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The Ba'athist forces captured eastern Hama Governorate and eastern Homs Governorate by December 3, cutting off the corridor between Damascus and the Mediterranean coast. The eastern half of Rif Dimashq had been captured by rebel forces, which completed the encirclement of Damascus from the south, north and east in early December.
Fighting began in the Adra industrial city, just 40 km north of Damascus, on December 2. Some of the factories and warehouses were turned into bunkers, with heavy fighting between the Ba'athist Syrian Arab Army and the SNA's 2nd Reserve Armored Division and the 1st Capital Division, as the Ba'athists were forced to clear each bunker individually with the help of artillery and armor. On December 3, the BBC described the situation in Adra as "one of the bloodiest battles of the war" up to that point. Some isolated pockets of SNA and NDF militia resistance were surrounded and pinned down in Adra, while the opposition continued to advance along the two highways into the city and took control of Douma, a suburb just north of the capital, on December 5. The 2nd Corps headquarters in Douma was captured within hours, and the corps commander reported that a large number of the soldiers in the area had defected to the Ba'athists, with the 4th and 12th Motorized Divisions practically ceasing to exist. General Mike Bennett, the Sierran Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of the Defense Staff, described the situation as a "disaster" for the Syrian government to the Sierran House of Commons. On the morning of December 6, President Saadallah al-Kuzbari and several members of his staff were reported to have left the country for the Trucial States by plane. Defense Minister Raed Al-Jubouri announced the same day that the Syrian government wanted a "peaceful transition of power" to the Ba'athist opposition and to prevent civilian casualties in Damascus, and that the terms were agreed to by Khalifa al-Malki, the head of the Revolutionary Command Council.
On December 7 the Ba'athists entered Damascus from three directions, with remaining SNA soldiers having left the city and police cooperating with the Ba'ath field commanders. Al-Jubouri made another televised announcement saying an interim government had been formed to oversee the transition.
By December 8 the only remaining resistance in the Damascus area was in a few pockets north and east of the city. In Syria as a whole, only the governorates of Latakia, Tartus, and Saladin still remained mostly under the control of loyalist forces. Parts of the city of Aleppo remained held by SNA and NDF holdouts. A spokesman for the Syrian Ba'athist Party and its leader, Regional Secretary and President al-Malki, told an interviewer from Al Arabiya that the war in Syria was over, and that mop-up operations would continue in the remaining areas not under Ba'athist control. He also confirmed that al-Malki had spoken with General Kingston, head of the Sierran Central Command, and told him that the Ba'ath Party would allow them until December 31 to complete the CAS-EC withdrawal using Damascus International Airport, without disruption from the new Ba'ath government.
Aftermath
Creation of new state
Civilian exodus
Continuing conflict
Assessments
The rapid advance of Syrian opposition forces and the routing of government forces, especially in the north, has been highly documented and contested. Key factors in regards to the rapid gains and route of the Syrian National Army and security forces remain debated due to the offensive still ongoing, however many observers have highlighted several key factors: the Sierran–Syrian opposition peace deal, withdrawal of ISAF forces from Syria, corruption within the Syrian Armed Forces, and poor logistical support.
Opposition strategy
The strategy of the Syrian opposition has been highlighted for its overall effectiveness during the offensive, allowing them to capture several districts and provincial capitals. In general, the opposition started their attack from the east where the politics of the region favored them and engaged in a gradual strategy of enveloping and eventually encircling SNA forces and garrisons by capturing the surrounding countryside, then villages, and other settlements to surround a larger city. They also focused on capturing several highways, cutting SNA forces off from resupply by land, and further isolating them to weaken their position for a protracted siege as seen in Aleppo. Taking advantage of the favorable politics in the region, several districts surrendered to the opposition without any armed resistance through peaceful negotiations and settlements while others held out for as long as possible.
The domination of the Syrian government by Sunni factions led to the Ba'athist movement gaining support among the public in areas with significant non-Sunni populations. In some parts of the country people sympathized with the pre-2004 Ba'ath government, and therefore provided assistance to the insurgency.
Role of social media
Opposition forces have been documented with for their extensive usage of social media using several platforms such as Bubbler, Socialnet, Morse Code and several others where they've posted images and videos of their fighters fighting against government forces, capturing towns and cities, driving through said cities and meeting with civilians, often being met with praise. Said social media is part of a wider propaganda campaign to undermine both the morale and fighting capabilities of the government forces highlighting both their deficiencies and the effectiveness of the opposition. The syrian opposition notably uses social media to speak with both civilians to promote the opposition cause and to convince government forces to surrender in order to avoid further bloodshed and loss of life.
Issues with the Syrian forces
The performance of the Syrian Armed Forces and other security forces from police to pro-government militias has been called into question and criticized. The rapid loss of territory in the north, the encirclement of several units and major cities along with issues of logistics and maintenance have hampered the ability of the Syrian military to effectively fight back, in particular the Syrian National Army which has done the bulk of the fighting in the government's response to the offensive due to it being the largest branch of the military.
Logistical failings
Ghost soldiers
Sectarianism
International and local reactions
Domestic
Syrian President Saadallah al-Kuzbari announced in a speech to the nation on 3 November that the Syrian National Army was capable of defending the country from "Ba'athist terrorists." The appointment of a new defense minister, Raed Al-Jubouri, suggested that the SNA was planning to go on a counteroffensive against weak points in the opposition defensive line. The fall of Syria's northern territories, the besieging of Aleppo and the further loss of territory in the northwest has caused significant panic from the Syrian civilian population resulting in a state of emergency being declared on November 18 and martial law to be imposed in Damascus and the surrounding Rif Dimashq Governorates along with other surrounding governorates in the south to secure the Syrian military and government's position. On November 24, martial law was declared in central Syria as part of an effort to retain control over the region.
Throughout the offensive, various videos and posts have been made on social media sites such as Bubbler, Socialnet, VidStream, and sveral others showing Syrian National Army soldiers retreating and abandoning forward positions in the northwest and parts of central Syria. The Syrian Ministry of Defense released a statement on November 17 confirming that these incidents have been happening, but claimed that they were isolated incidents and not the overall response from the army's average soldier nor any frontline personnel.
International
Anatolian Republic – The Anatolian Republic Land Forces were mobilized on 10 November and deployed units along the Syrian border as a precaution, as virtually the entire Syrian side had been taken over by the opposition.
Brazoria – Chancellor Ed Gonzales held a press conference on November 10 where he stated his personal surprise at the rapid gains by the Syrian Ba'athist forces, a sentiment shared by the federal government. On November 23, the Department of Foreign Affairs announced that Brazoria would partake in the CAS airlifts in Damascus with the Brazorian Air Force sending three regiments to evacuate all Brazorian nationals from Syria along with at-risk Syrian citizens. On November 24, several CAS air units were launched from Brazoria and headed towards Damascus, Syria when the airlifts officially started.
Hashemite Arabia – Elements of the Royal Hashemite Land Forces were deployed to secure the border with Syria on October 30 following reports of collapsing frontlines in the northeast and several Syrians fleeing into Hashemite Arabia across the border. The decision to deploy the soldiers and application for asylum for any Syrian exiles was approved and ordered by King Faisal IV to prevent any internal instability as a result of the war.
Iraq – Prime Minister Mohammed Ridha al-Kaylani announced on 7 November 2022 that the Royal Iraqi Armed Forces launched their own operation to assist the Syrian government, as Iraq was never a party to the Sierra–opposition peace deal. By the middle of November the Iraqi Air Force carried out airstrikes on opposition forces throughout Eastern Syria and the Syrian Desert region, while the Royal Iraqi Army has deployed the bulk of its forces to the Syrian-Iraqi border region to prevent the conflict from spilling over into Iraq.
Kingdom of Sierra – The Ministry of Foreign Affairs began issuing warnings to Sierran nationals to leave Syria on October 1 at the start of the offensive and has continued to issue warnings since then. On November 22, prime minister Susan Kwon stated that the government is surprised by the rapid advancement of the Ba'athist opposition, but has remained committed to the withdrawal of all ISAF foces in accordance with the deal made with the opposition and stated that the Syrian military "must inevitably bare the burden of fighting for this is there war, not ours". On November 24, Kwon announced Sierran participation in the CAS airlifts.
Superior – Secretary of Foreign Affairs Andrew Keyes formally announced Superior's participation in the CAS airlifts on November 24 and also stated that the Department of Foreign Affairs has issued over eleven warnings since the start of the offensive in October to any Superian citizens and nationals in Syria to leave the country immediately. President Isaac Dillon gave an address to the nation on November 20 stating that the federal government has been tracking the offensive with "immense concern" and stated that the Superian Armed Forces will give as much support to the Syrian military as possible.
United Kingdom – Prime Minister Clive Spencer announced that the Royal Air Force would provide air support to the Syrian National Army and security forces on October 4 to buy them time to organize a counter-offensive while also announcing that the RAF would begin evacuating any and all British nationals in Syria with the Department of Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs having issued several warnings to British citizens in Syria to leave the country since then. On November 24, the Foreign Office confirmed that British military forces would participate in the Eurocorps effort to evacuate British and other European nationals from Syria alongside the CAS airlifts.