2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries: Difference between revisions

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|image1 = [[File:Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpeg|150x150px]]
|image1 = [[File:Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpeg|150x150px]]
|candidate1 = [[Allen Paul]]
|candidate1 = '''[[Allen Paul]]'''
|home_state1 = [[Hispaniola]]
|home_state1 = [[Hispaniola]]
|color1 = DD151C
|color1 = DD151C
|popular_vote1 = '''4,992,061'''
|percentage1 =
|delegate_count1 = '''890'''


|image2 = [[File:Former NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu Sept. 2018 (cropped).jpeg|150x150px]]  
|image2 = [[File:Former NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu Sept. 2018 (cropped).jpeg|150x150px]]  
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|home_state2 = [[Hispaniola]]  
|home_state2 = [[Hispaniola]]  
|color2 = 1100FF
|color2 = 1100FF
|popular_vote2 = 3,213,319
|percentage2 =
|delegate_count2 = 586


|image3 = [[File:Congressman Sestak Official Congressional headshot.jpg|150x150px]]  
|image3 = [[File:JoeGarciaOfficialHeadshot.jpg|150x150px]]  
|candidate3 = [[Wyatt Tindall]]  
|candidate3 = [[Esteban Morello]]<br>{{small|(withdrawn)}}
|home_state3 = [[Hispaniola]]  
|home_state3 = [[Cuba]]  
|color3 = FF4D82
|color3 = 0505B5
|popular_vote3 = 847,521
|percentage3 =
|delegate_count3 = 157


|title = Civic Democratic nominee
|title = Civic Democratic nominee
|before_election = [[William Abernathy]]
|before_election = [[William Abernathy]]
|after_election = [[Allen Paul]]
}}
}}
{{2024 Antillean presidential election series}}  
{{2024 Antillean presidential election series}}  
Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by the [[Civic Democratic Party of the Antilles|Civic Democratic Party]] to select delegates to the [[2024 Civic Democratic National Convention]] who will select the party's nominee for the [[President of the United Commonwealth of America|president]] for the [[2024 Antillean presidential election]]. The election will take place across all four [[Provisional commonwealth (Antilles)|provisional commonwealths]] and [[Civic Democrats Abroad]], taking place between June 4 and June 25 of that year.
Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by the [[Civic Democratic Party of the Antilles|Civic Democratic Party]] to select delegates to the [[2024 Civic Democratic National Convention]] who will select the party's nominee for the [[President of the United Commonwealth of America|president]] for the [[2024 Antillean presidential election]]. The election will take place across all four [[Provisional commonwealth (Antilles)|provisional commonwealths]] and [[Civic Democrats Abroad]], taking place between June 4 and June 25 of that year.


Speculation for the party's nominee in 2024 has been ongoing since early 2022 with [[William Abernathy]], one of the party's co-founders, the House Minority Leader, and the party's nominee in [[2020 Antillean presidential election|2020]], was originally leading in the polls as one of the top contenders, however Abernathy had not given any clear statement as to whether or not he would run in 2024. On 22 January 2023, Abernathy declared that he wouldn't run in 2024, believing that he would serve better continuing as the Minority Leader in the [[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|House of Representatitives]]. While no other reason was stated, many speculated that other potential factors included the party's underwhelming showing at the [[2022 Antillean elections|2022 midterm elections]] and the growing influence of the party's progressive wing, one that is in disagreement and minor conflict with the party's moderate wing (one that Abernathy is a part of). Both before and after Abernathy's announcement, many political analysts predicted that the race would be deeply competitive due to the ideological conflict between moderate and progressive Civic Democrats with the latter being credited for better electoral performances such as the Civic Democrat gains in the [[2022 Cuba elections]] and have been credited for retaining a consistent growth in support for the party.
Speculation for the party's nominee in 2024 has been ongoing since early 2022 with [[William Abernathy]], the House Minority Leader and the party's nominee in [[2020 Antillean presidential election|2020]], was originally leading in the polls as one of the top contenders, however Abernathy had not given any clear statement as to whether or not he would run in 2024. On 22 January 2023, Abernathy declared that he wouldn't run in 2024, believing that he would serve better continuing as the Minority Leader in the [[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|House of Representatitives]]. While no other reason was stated, many speculated that other potential factors included the party's underwhelming showing at the [[2022 Antillean elections|2022 midterm elections]] and the growing influence of the party's progressive wing, one that is in disagreement and minor conflict with the party's moderate wing (which Abernathy is viewed as being a part of). Both before and after Abernathy's announcement, many political analysts predicted that the race would be deeply competitive due to the ideological conflict between moderate and progressive Civic Democrats with the latter being credited for better electoral performances such as the Civic Democrat gains in the [[2022 Cuba elections]] and have been credited for retaining a consistent growth in support for the party.


[[Allen Paul]] became the first candidate to formally enter the race, announcing his candidacy on 10 February 2023 at a rally in his home city of [[Montgomery, Hispaniola|Montgomery]] where he laid out his progressive platform and vision for the Antilles. His campaign announcement was also livestreamed through [[VidStream]] and [[Bubbler]], attracting over a million viewers.
[[Allen Paul]] became the first candidate to formally enter the race, announcing his candidacy on 10 February 2023 at a rally in his home city of [[Montgomery, Hispaniola|Montgomery]] where he laid out his progressive platform and vision for the Antilles. His campaign announcement was also livestreamed through [[VidStream]] and [[Bubbler]], attracting over a million viewers.
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On February 13, 2023, three days following Paul, [[Alexander Wilder]], vice chair of the [[Civic Democratic National Committee]], announced his campaign on social media and held a official launch event a day later in [[Whiteport, Hispaniola|Whiteport]]. Wilder had been teasing a presidential campaign since the midterm elections and is viewed as a leading moderate figure. On February 20, 2023, [[Wyatt Tindall]], {{w|county executive}} of [[Davis Parish]], announced his candidacy through an interview on [[CBS News]] and held an official launch event on March 1.  
On February 13, 2023, three days following Paul, [[Alexander Wilder]], vice chair of the [[Civic Democratic National Committee]], announced his campaign on social media and held a official launch event a day later in [[Whiteport, Hispaniola|Whiteport]]. Wilder had been teasing a presidential campaign since the midterm elections and is viewed as a leading moderate figure. On February 20, 2023, [[Wyatt Tindall]], {{w|county executive}} of [[Davis Parish]], announced his candidacy through an interview on [[CBS News]] and held an official launch event on March 1.  


On March 2, 2023, former [[Senator-in-Absentia|senator-in-absentia]] [[Mike Connelly]], who also was the [[Liberal Party of the Antilles|Liberal]] presidential nominee in [[2016 Antillean presidential election|2016]], declared his candidacy at a rally in [[Columbia City]]. On April 30, 2023, [[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|U.C. representative]] [[Sarah Wilson]] announced her candidacy at a rally in [[New Charleston]]. She is the first  woman to enter the race and is the first and currently only candidate from [[Cuba]]. On June 4, Representative [[Kelly Parker]] of Hispaniola announced her candidacy, becoming the second woman and openly progressive candidate to enter into the race.  
On March 2, 2023, former [[United Commonwealth Senate|U.C. Senator]] from [[Jefferson Parish]] [[Mike Connelly]], who also was the Civic Democratic presidential nominee in [[2016 Antillean presidential election|2016]], declared his candidacy at a rally in [[Columbia City]]. On April 30, 2023, [[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|U.C. representative]] [[Sarah Wilson]] announced her candidacy at a rally in [[New Charleston]]. She is the first  woman to enter the race and the first candidate from [[Cuba]] followed by [[Esteban Morello]] on May 31. On June 4, Representative [[Kelly Parker]] of Hispaniola announced her candidacy, becoming the second woman and openly progressive candidate to enter into the race.


During the first primaries [[2024 Puerto Rico Civic Democratic presidential primary|in Puerto Rico]] and [[2024 Virgin Islands Civic Democratic presidential primary|Virgin Islands primaries]], Wilder and Paul won those races respectively and have emerged as the main frontrunners in the race, having amassed signifiant support from the Civic Democratic base from their campaigning efforts and debate performances. Following the [[2024 Hispaniola Civic Democratic presidential primary|Hispaniola primary]] on June 4, 2024, all other candidates have withdrawn from the race with Wilder, Paul, and Morello remaining in the race. Both men's position as the main frontrunners has highlighted the influence and competition between the [[Liberalism in the Antilles|liberal]]/moderate and [[Progressivism in the Antilles|progressive]] factions of the party, with the latter gaining more influence in recent years despite its traditional view as being too radical for electoral success and influence in [[Politics of the Antilles|national politics]].
Following the [[2024 Cuba Civic Democratic presidential primary|Cuba primary]], Paul has emerged as the {{W|presumptive nominee}} after 398 delegates in the race which combined with the previous 492 he won in the previous three major primaries has seen him win 890 delegates. Paul will be sworn in as the ofifial nominee at the 2024 Civic Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in [[Whiteport, Hispaniola|Whiteport]] on July 15, making him the second Antillean nationalist as well as the first [[African Antilleans|African Antillean]] and progressive major party presidential nominee in [[History of the Antilles|Antillean history]].
==Timeline==  
==Timeline==  
William Abernathy came in second place in the [[2020 Antillean presidential election]], winning 42% of the popular vote and won 91 votes from the [[United Commonwealth Electoral Congregation|Electoral Congregation]] and despite losing to [[Federalist Party of the Antilles|Federalist]] nominee [[Arian Lawrence]], Abernathy won the largest raw number and percentage of votes of any non-Federalist presidential candidate and oversaw an increase in support for the Civic Democratic Party despite underperforming on the down ballot congressional elections. Throughout 2021 and 2022, Abernathy was speculated to be the party's potential nominee in 2024 with Abernathy not ruling out a potential candidacy in January 2022. While Abernathy was speculated to be a potential candidate and was the frontrunner in the polls, progressive members of the Civic Democrats encouraged him to not run, arguing that his moderate policies wouldn't entice voters and that the party needed to run in a more progressive direction to challenge the conservative nationalism of the Federalist Party under Lawrence. Said calls grew in August 2022 when [[Allen Paul]], the mayor of Montgomery, publicly expressed interest in running for president again and has remained popular among the party's progressive members and the wider [[Progressivism in the Antilles|progressive movement]]. Abernathy would remain silent about whether or not he would run for president again in 2024 for the rest of 2022 with analysts predicting that he would make a formal announcement sometime in early 2023 after indications from Abernathy himself.  
William Abernathy came in second place in the [[2020 Antillean presidential election]], winning 42% of the popular vote and won 91 votes from the [[United Commonwealth Electoral Congregation|Electoral Congregation]]. Despite losing to [[Federalist Party of the Antilles|Federalist]] nominee [[Arian Lawrence]], Abernathy won the largest raw number of any Civic Democratic presidential candidate and oversaw an increase in support for the Civic Democratic Party despite underperforming on the down ballot congressional elections. Throughout 2021 and 2022, Abernathy was speculated to be the party's potential nominee in 2024, with Abernathy himself not ruling out a potential candidacy in January 2022. While Abernathy was speculated to be a potential candidate and was the frontrunner in the polls, progressive members of the Civic Democrats encouraged him to not run, arguing that his moderate policies wouldn't entice voters and that the party needed to run in a more progressive direction to challenge the conservative nationalism of the Federalist Party under Lawrence. Said calls grew in August 2022 when [[Allen Paul]], the mayor of Montgomery and Abernathy's vice presidential running mate, publicly expressed interest in running for president again and has remained popular among the party's progressive members and the wider [[Progressivism in the Antilles|progressive movement]]. Abernathy would remain silent about whether or not he would run for president again in 2024 for the rest of 2022 with analysts predicting that he would make a formal announcement sometime in early 2023 after indications from Abernathy himself.  


On 22 January 2023, William Abernathy announced that he would not run in 2024 and would instead focus on continuing to serve as House Minority Leader instead. Abernathy's announcement was met with a mixed array of reactions ranging from surprise to support from progressives fearing that his more moderate political positions wouldn't energize voters while others were concerned that without Abernathy, it's unlikely that any other candidate will be able to bridge the gap between the two competing ideological factions. This move left the primaries open to an intensive competitive election with political analysts predicting a large number of candidates will enter into the race and that the conflict between moderate and progressive Civic Democrats will take center stage as both wings vye for both the nomination and control over the party at-large.  
On 22 January 2023, William Abernathy announced that he would not run in 2024 and would instead focus on continuing to serve as House Minority Leader instead. Abernathy's announcement was met with a mixed array of reactions ranging from surprise to support from progressives fearing that his more moderate political positions wouldn't energize voters while others were concerned that without Abernathy, it's unlikely that any other candidate will be able to bridge the gap between the two competing ideological factions. This move left the primaries open to an intensive competitive election with political analysts predicting a large number of candidates will enter into the race and that the conflict between moderate and progressive Civic Democrats will take center stage as both wings vye for both the nomination and control over the party at-large.  
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A fourth debate was held on February 1, 2024 and was hosted jointly by the [[BGP News]] and [[Columbia News Channel]]. All major candidates were invited to the debate, a decision many believe was made in order to prevent a breakoff debate between Morello, Wilson, Connelly, and Parker. Topics included economic reform, specifically regarding the Antillean gambling industry, and various social issues. Halfway during the debate, Wilson accused the debate moderators of favoring Wilder and Paul, with her accusations being joined by Parker and Morello. Under his breath, BGP moderator [[Darius Goodwill]] quietly responded to Wilson by saying they should be more relevant next time. His response was picked up by his microphone, and became a trending topic on Antillean social media. Goodwill was briefly suspended by BGP News and apologized to Wilson days afterwards.
A fourth debate was held on February 1, 2024 and was hosted jointly by the [[BGP News]] and [[Columbia News Channel]]. All major candidates were invited to the debate, a decision many believe was made in order to prevent a breakoff debate between Morello, Wilson, Connelly, and Parker. Topics included economic reform, specifically regarding the Antillean gambling industry, and various social issues. Halfway during the debate, Wilson accused the debate moderators of favoring Wilder and Paul, with her accusations being joined by Parker and Morello. Under his breath, BGP moderator [[Darius Goodwill]] quietly responded to Wilson by saying they should be more relevant next time. His response was picked up by his microphone, and became a trending topic on Antillean social media. Goodwill was briefly suspended by BGP News and apologized to Wilson days afterwards.


A fifth and final debate is scheduled to be held sometime in April or May 2024 and while be hosted by [[CBS News]] in [[Columbia City]]. No rules or guidelines have yet to be announced.
A fifth and final debate was held on May 5, 2024 and was hosted by [[CBS News]]. CBS reinstated requirements to participate in this debate, being that candidates with at least 4% in recent polling were allowed to participate. Only Paul and Wilder attended the debate. While Tindall and Morello were invited, both declined due to undisclosed personal reasons. As Paul and Wilder were both viewed as the front runners of the rest, the fifth debate produced the largest share of viewers amongst the others. Topics included candidate positions on various social issues and foreign policy.


===Primary calendar===
===Primary calendar===
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| <center>106</center>
| <center>106</center>
| <center>50</center>
| <center>50</center>
|[[2024 Puerto Rico Civic Democratic presidential primary|Puerto Rico primary]]<br>[[2024 Virgin Islands Civic Democratic primary|Virgin Islands primary]]
|[[2024 Puerto Rico Civic Democratic presidential primary|Puerto Rico primary]]<br>[[2024 Virgin Islands Civic Democratic presidential primary|Virgin Islands primary]]
|-
|-
|June 11, 2024<br>({{W|Super Tuesday}})
|June 11, 2024<br>({{W|Super Tuesday}})
Line 83: Line 96:


==Candidates==
==Candidates==
===Declared candidates===
===Presumptive nominee===
The candidates of this section have formally announced their candidacy, have received substantial media coverage, hold or have held significant public office, and have been included in at least five national polls.
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
|+Presumptive Civic Democratic nominee for the 2024 Antillean presidential election
|-
|-
! Name
!scope="col" colspan=2 | Name
! Born
!scope="col"| Born
! class="unsortable" | Experience
!scope="col" class="unsortable" | Experience
! Home state
!scope="col"| Home state
! Campaign <br /> {{small|Announcement date}}
!scope="col"| Campaign<br/>Announcement date
!scope="col"| Bound<br/>delegates
!scope="col"| Contests<br/>won
!scope="col"| Popular<br/>vote
!scope="col"| Running<br>mate
|-
|-
|[[File:Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpeg|x160px]]<br>'''[[Allen Paul]]'''  
| scope="row" data-sort-value="Paul, Allen"|[[File:Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpeg|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Allen Paul]]'''
|{{dts|1969|7|23}}<br>(age {{age nts|1969|7|23}})<br>[[Montgomery, Hispaniola]]  
| style="background:#DD151C;" |
|'''[[Mayor of Montgomery, Hispaniola]] (2019–present)'''<br>Member of the [[Montgomery City Council]] for the 2nd Ward (2013–2019)  
|{{Dts|1969|7|23}}<br>(age {{age nts|1969|7|23}})<br>[[Montgomery, Hispaniola]]  
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| [[Mayor of Montgomery, Hispaniola]] (2019–present)<br>Member of the [[Montgomery City Council]] for the 2nd Ward (2013–2019)<br>Civic Democratic vice presidential nominee in [[2020 Antillean presidential election|2020]]
|[[File:Allen Paul 2024.png|200px]]<br>[[Allen Paul 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced February 10, 2023'''  
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| [[File:Allen Paul 2024.png|90x90px|framless]]<br>[[Allen Paul 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>February 10, 2023<br>'''Secured nomination: June 18, 2024'''
| 890
| 3<br>([[2024 Virgin Islands Civic Democratic presidential primary|VI]], [[2024 Hispaniola Civic Democratic presidential primary|HA]], [[2024 Cuba Civic Democratic presidential primary|CA]])
| 4,992,061
| ''[[2024 Civic Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection|TBA]]''
|}
 
===Withdrew during the primaries===
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
|+Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries
|-
|-
|[[File:Former NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu Sept. 2018 (cropped).jpeg|x160px]]<br>'''[[Alexander Wilder]]'''
!scope="col" colspan=2 | Name
|{{dts|1960|8|19}}<br>(age {{age nts|1960|8|19}})<br>[[Whiteport, Hispaniola]]
!scope="col"| Born
|'''Vice Chair of the [[Civic Democratic National Committee]] (2021–present)'''<br>[[Mayor of Whiteport, Hispaniola]] (2013–2021)<br>Member of the [[Whiteport Board of Supervisors]] (2005–2013)
!scope="col" class="unsortable" | Experience
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]
!scope="col"| Home state
|[[File:Alexander Wilder 2024.png|200px]]<br>[[Alexander Wilder 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced February 13, 2023'''
!scope="col"| Campaign<br/>announced
!scope="col"| Campaign<br/>suspended
!scope="col"| Campaign
!scope="col"| Bound<br/>delegates
!scope="col"| Contests<br/>won
!scope="col"| Popular<br/>vote
|-
|-
|[[File:Congressman Sestak Official Congressional headshot.jpg|x160px]]<br>'''[[Wyatt Tindall]]'''  
| scope="row" data-sort-value="Wilder, Alexander"|[[File:Former NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu Sept. 2018 (cropped).jpeg|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Alexander Wilder]]'''
|{{dts|1961|9|23}}<br>(age {{age nts|1961|9|23}})<br>[[Saint Louis, Hispaniola]]
| style="background:#1100FF;" |
|'''{{w|County Executive|Executive}} of [[Davis Parish]] (2019–present)'''<br> Member of the [[Hispaniola Provisional Assembly]] (2009–2019)  
| {{Dts|1960|7|19}}<br>(age {{age nts|1960|7|23}})<br>[[Whiteport, Hispaniola]]  
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| Vice Chair of the [[Civic Democratic National Committee]] (2021–present)<br>[[Mayor of Whiteport, Hispaniola]] (2013–2021)<br>Member of the [[Whiteport Board of Supervisors]] (2005–2013)
|[[File:Wyatt Tindall 2024.svg|200px]] <br> [[Wyatt Tindall 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced February 20, 2023'''
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| February 13, 2023
| June 19, 2024<br>''{{small|(endorsed Paul)}}''
| [[File:Alexander Wilder 2024.png|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Alexander Wilder 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]
| 586
| 1<br>([[2024 Puerto Rico Civic Democratic presidential primary|PR]])
| 3,213,319
|-
|-
|[[File:Bob Casey Jr. official photo.jpg|x160px]]<br>'''[[Mike Connelly]]'''
| scope="row" data-sort-value="Morello, Esteban"|[[File:JoeGarciaOfficialHeadshot.jpg|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Esteban Morello]]'''
|{{dts|1960|4|18}}<br>( age {{age nts|1960|4|18}})<br>[[Montgomery, Hispaniola]]  
| style="background:#0505B5; "|
|'''[[United Commonwealth Senate|U.C. Senator]] for [[Jefferson Parish]] (2005–2015)'''
| {{dts|1964|7|16}}<br>(age {{Age nts|1964|7|19}})<br>{{W|Trinidad, Cuba}}
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| [[Governor of Cuba]] (2021–present)<br>[[House of Representatives of the Antilles|Antillean Representative]] from [[Cuba's 21st congressional district|CA-21]] (2003–2021)
|[[File:Mike Connelly 2024.svg|200px]] <br> [[Mike Connelly 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced March 2, 2023'''
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Cuba.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Cuba]]  
| May 31, 2023
| June 17, 2024<br>''{{small|(endorsed Paul)}}''
| [[File:Esteban Morello 2024.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Esteban Morello 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]
| 157
| ''None''  
| 847,521
|-
|-
|[[File:1024px-Susan Wild, Official Portrait, 115th Congress.jpeg|x160px]]<br> '''[[Sarah Wilson]]'''
| scope="row" data-sort-value="Connelly, Mike" |[[File:Bob Casey Jr. official photo.jpg|border|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Mike Connelly]]'''  
|{{dts|1962|9|19}}<br>( age {{age nts|1962|9|19}})<br>[[New Charleston]], [[Cuba]]  
| style="background:#05DEFF;" |
|'''[[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|U.C. Representative]] for [[Cuba's 10th congressional district|Cuba's 10th district]] (2017–present)'''
| {{dts|1960|4|18}}<br>(age {{age nts|1960|4|18}})<br>[[New Decatur]], [[Hispaniola]]  
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Cuba.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Cuba]]  
| [[Senate of the Antilles|Antillean Senator]] from [[Jefferson Parish]] (2005–2017)<br>Civic Democratic nominee in [[2016 Antillean presidential election|2016]]
|[[File:Sarah Wilson.svg|200px]] <br> [[Sarah Wilson 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced April 30, 2023'''
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| March 2, 2023
| June 11, 2024<br>{{small|''(endorsed Wilder)''}}
| [[File:Mike Connelly 2024.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Mike Connelly 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]
| 69
| ''None''  
| 326,937
|-
|-
|[[File:JoeGarciaOfficialHeadshot.jpg|x160px]]<br>'''[[Esteban Morello]]'''
| scope="row" data-sort-value="Wilson, Sarah"|[[File:1024px-Susan Wild, Official Portrait, 115th Congress.jpeg|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Sarah Wilson]]'''
|{{dts|1964|8|16}}<br>(age {{age nts|1964|8|16}})<br>{{W|Trinidad, Cuba}}
| style="background:#FF5500;" |
|'''[[Governor of Cuba]] (2021–present)'''<br>[[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|U.C. Representative]] for [[Cuba's 21st congressional district|Cuba's 21st district]] (2003–2021)
| {{dts|1962|9|19}}<br>(age {{age nts|1962|9|19}})<br>[[New Charleston]], [[Cuba]]  
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Cuba.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Cuba]]  
| [[House of Representatives of the Antilles|Antillean Representative]] from [[Cuba's 10th congressional district|CA-10]] (2017–present)
|[[File:Esteban Morello 2024.svg|200px]]<br>[[Esteban Morello 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced May 31, 2023'''
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Cuba.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Cuba]]  
| April 30, 2023
| June 11, 2024<br>{{small|''(endorsed Paul)''}}
| [[File:Sarah Wilson.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Sarah Wilson 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]
| 46
| ''None''  
| 233,089
|-
|-
|[[File:Katie Porter Official Portrait (cropped).jpg|x160px]]<br>'''[[Kelly Parker]]'''  
| scope="row" data-sort-value"=Parker, Kelly"|[[File:Katie Porter Official Portrait (cropped).jpg|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Kelly Parker]]'''
|{{Dts|1975|10|18}}<br>(age {{age nts|1975|10|18}})<br>[[Davis, Hispaniola]]  
| style="background:#FF0505;" |
|'''[[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|U.C. Representative]] for [[Hispaniola's 87th congressional district|Hispaniola's 87th district]] (2017–present)'''<br>Member of the [[Harrison Parish Council]] (2013–2017)  
| {{Dts|1975|10|18}}<br>(age {{age nts|1975|10|18}})<br>[[Davis, Hispaniola]]  
|[[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]  
| [[House of Representatives of the Antilles|Antillean Representative]] from [[Hispaniola's 87th congressional district|HA-87]] (2017–present)<br>Member of the [[Harrison Parish Council]] (2013–2017)  
|[[File:Kelly Parker 2024.svg|200px]]<br>[[Kelly Parker 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]<hr>'''Announced June 4, 2023'''  
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]
| June 4, 2023
| June 9, 2024<br>{{small|''(endorsed Paul)''}}
| [[File:Kelly Parker 2024.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Kelly Parker 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]
| TBD
| ''None''
| TBD
|-
| scope="row" data-sort-value="Tindall, Wyatt" |[[File:Congressman Sestak Official Congressional headshot.jpg|150x150px]]<br>'''[[Wyatt Tindall]]'''
| style="background:#FF4D82;" |
| {{dts|1961|9|23}}<br>(age {{age nts|1961|9|23}})<br>[[Saint Louis, Hispaniola]]
| {{W|County executive|Executive}} of [[Davis Parish]] (2019–present)<br>Member of the [[Hispaniola Provisional Assembly]] from the 22nd district (2009–2019)
| [[File:Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Hispaniola]]
| February 20, 2023
| June 6, 2024<br>{{small|''(endorsed Wilder)''}}
| [[File:Wyatt Tindall 2024.svg|frameless|90x90px]]<br>[[Wyatt Tindall 2024 presidential campaign|Campaign]]
| TBD
| ''None''  
| TBD
|-
|-
|}
|}
===Decline to be candidates===  
===Decline to be candidates===  
The following notable individuals have been subject to speculation of a potential candidate, but have denied interest in running.  
The following notable individuals have been subject to speculation of a potential candidate, but have denied interest in running.  
Line 152: Line 225:
*[[Stephanie Delgado]], Member of the [[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|House of Representatives]] for [[Puerto Rico's 2nd congressional district]] (2019–present), Co-Chair of the [[Congressional Progressive Coalition]] (2021–present)
*[[Stephanie Delgado]], Member of the [[United Commonwealth House of Representatives|House of Representatives]] for [[Puerto Rico's 2nd congressional district]] (2019–present), Co-Chair of the [[Congressional Progressive Coalition]] (2021–present)
*[[Harry Ferguson]], {{w|County executive|Parish Executive}} of [[New Charleston Parish]] (2021–present), Member of the [[New Charleston Parish Council]] (2015–2021), Member of the [[New Charleston City Council]] (2005–2015)
*[[Harry Ferguson]], {{w|County executive|Parish Executive}} of [[New Charleston Parish]] (2021–present), Member of the [[New Charleston Parish Council]] (2015–2021), Member of the [[New Charleston City Council]] (2005–2015)
*[[Enrique Esposito]], Member of the [[Cuba Provisional Assembly]] (2001–2005), [[Reform Party of the Antilles|Reform]] candidate for president in [[2004 Antillean presidential election|2004]] ''(endorsed Morello)''
*[[Enrique Esposito]], Member of the [[Cuba Provisional Assembly]] (2001–2005), [[Reform Party of the Antilles|Reform]] candidate for president in [[1988 Antillean presidential election|1988]] ''(endorsed Morello)''
*[[Marcus Porter]], [[Mayor of Whiteport, Hispaniola|Mayor of Whiteport]] (2020–present), candidate for [[Lieutenant Governor of Hispaniola|Lieutenant governor]] of [[Hispaniola]] in [[2019 Hispaniola gubernatorial election|2019]] ''(endorsed Paul)''
*[[Marcus Porter]], [[Mayor of Whiteport, Hispaniola|Mayor of Whiteport]] (2020–present), candidate for [[Lieutenant Governor of Hispaniola|Lieutenant governor]] of [[Hispaniola]] in [[2019 Hispaniola gubernatorial election|2019]] ''(endorsed Paul)''


==Vice presidential speculation==
==Vice presidential speculation==
{{Main|2024 Civic Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection}}
{{Main|2024 Civic Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection}}
Various media outlets speculated on who would potentially be the Civic Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election since 2022. According to Antillean political observers, a unity ticket between the moderate and progressive wings of the party, as since in the [[2020 Antillean presidential election|2020 presidential election]], is most likely to occur again. Beginning in December of 2023, there have been rumors that both [[Allen Paul]] and [[Alexander Wilder]], the two leading candidates in the primary, may select a running mate before the national convention.  
Various media outlets speculated on who would potentially be the Civic Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election since 2022. According to Antillean political observers, a unity ticket between the moderate and progressive wings of the party, as since in the [[2020 Antillean presidential election|2020 presidential election]], is most likely to occur again. Beginning in December of 2023, there have been rumors that both [[Allen Paul]] and [[Alexander Wilder]], the two leading candidates in the primary, may select a running mate before the national convention.
 
Since February of 2024, there has been considered media speculation that Wilder will select [[Wyatt Tindall]] as his running mate to unite the moderate vote. Both campaigns have denied this assertion.


==Endorsements==
==Endorsements==
{{Main|Endorsements in the 2024 Civic Democratic presidential primaries}}
{{Main|Endorsements in the 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries}}


==Polling==
==Polling==

Revision as of 02:26, 25 June 2024

 This article is a start-class article. It needs further improvement to obtain good article status. This article is part of Altverse II.
2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries
← 2020 June 4–June 25, 2024 2028 →

  Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpeg Former NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu Sept. 2018 (cropped).jpeg JoeGarciaOfficialHeadshot.jpg
Candidate Allen Paul Alexander Wilder Esteban Morello
(withdrawn)
Home state Hispaniola Hispaniola Cuba
Estimated delegate count 890 586 157
Popular vote 4,992,061 3,213,319 847,521
Previous Civic Democratic nominee

William Abernathy

 Presumptive Civic Democratic nominee

Allen Paul

Seal of the President of the United Commonwealth of America.svg
2024 Antillean presidential election
Federalist Party
Civic Democratic Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by the Civic Democratic Party to select delegates to the 2024 Civic Democratic National Convention who will select the party's nominee for the president for the 2024 Antillean presidential election. The election will take place across all four provisional commonwealths and Civic Democrats Abroad, taking place between June 4 and June 25 of that year.

Speculation for the party's nominee in 2024 has been ongoing since early 2022 with William Abernathy, the House Minority Leader and the party's nominee in 2020, was originally leading in the polls as one of the top contenders, however Abernathy had not given any clear statement as to whether or not he would run in 2024. On 22 January 2023, Abernathy declared that he wouldn't run in 2024, believing that he would serve better continuing as the Minority Leader in the House of Representatitives. While no other reason was stated, many speculated that other potential factors included the party's underwhelming showing at the 2022 midterm elections and the growing influence of the party's progressive wing, one that is in disagreement and minor conflict with the party's moderate wing (which Abernathy is viewed as being a part of). Both before and after Abernathy's announcement, many political analysts predicted that the race would be deeply competitive due to the ideological conflict between moderate and progressive Civic Democrats with the latter being credited for better electoral performances such as the Civic Democrat gains in the 2022 Cuba elections and have been credited for retaining a consistent growth in support for the party.

Allen Paul became the first candidate to formally enter the race, announcing his candidacy on 10 February 2023 at a rally in his home city of Montgomery where he laid out his progressive platform and vision for the Antilles. His campaign announcement was also livestreamed through VidStream and Bubbler, attracting over a million viewers.

On February 13, 2023, three days following Paul, Alexander Wilder, vice chair of the Civic Democratic National Committee, announced his campaign on social media and held a official launch event a day later in Whiteport. Wilder had been teasing a presidential campaign since the midterm elections and is viewed as a leading moderate figure. On February 20, 2023, Wyatt Tindall, county executive of Davis Parish, announced his candidacy through an interview on CBS News and held an official launch event on March 1.

On March 2, 2023, former U.C. Senator from Jefferson Parish Mike Connelly, who also was the Civic Democratic presidential nominee in 2016, declared his candidacy at a rally in Columbia City. On April 30, 2023, U.C. representative Sarah Wilson announced her candidacy at a rally in New Charleston. She is the first woman to enter the race and the first candidate from Cuba followed by Esteban Morello on May 31. On June 4, Representative Kelly Parker of Hispaniola announced her candidacy, becoming the second woman and openly progressive candidate to enter into the race.

During the first primaries in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands primaries, Wilder and Paul won those races respectively and have emerged as the main frontrunners in the race, having amassed signifiant support from the Civic Democratic base from their campaigning efforts and debate performances. Following the Hispaniola primary on June 4, 2024, all other candidates have withdrawn from the race with Wilder, Paul, and Morello remaining in the race. Both men's position as the main frontrunners has highlighted the influence and competition between the liberal/moderate and progressive factions of the party, with the latter gaining more influence in recent years despite its traditional view as being too radical for electoral success and influence in national politics.

Following the Cuba primary, Paul has emerged as the presumptive nominee after 398 delegates in the race which combined with the previous 492 he won in the previous three major primaries has seen him win 890 delegates. Paul will be sworn in as the ofifial nominee at the 2024 Civic Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Whiteport on July 15, making him the second Antillean nationalist as well as the first African Antillean and progressive major party presidential nominee in Antillean history.

Timeline

William Abernathy came in second place in the 2020 Antillean presidential election, winning 42% of the popular vote and won 91 votes from the Electoral Congregation. Despite losing to Federalist nominee Arian Lawrence, Abernathy won the largest raw number of any Civic Democratic presidential candidate and oversaw an increase in support for the Civic Democratic Party despite underperforming on the down ballot congressional elections. Throughout 2021 and 2022, Abernathy was speculated to be the party's potential nominee in 2024, with Abernathy himself not ruling out a potential candidacy in January 2022. While Abernathy was speculated to be a potential candidate and was the frontrunner in the polls, progressive members of the Civic Democrats encouraged him to not run, arguing that his moderate policies wouldn't entice voters and that the party needed to run in a more progressive direction to challenge the conservative nationalism of the Federalist Party under Lawrence. Said calls grew in August 2022 when Allen Paul, the mayor of Montgomery and Abernathy's vice presidential running mate, publicly expressed interest in running for president again and has remained popular among the party's progressive members and the wider progressive movement. Abernathy would remain silent about whether or not he would run for president again in 2024 for the rest of 2022 with analysts predicting that he would make a formal announcement sometime in early 2023 after indications from Abernathy himself.

On 22 January 2023, William Abernathy announced that he would not run in 2024 and would instead focus on continuing to serve as House Minority Leader instead. Abernathy's announcement was met with a mixed array of reactions ranging from surprise to support from progressives fearing that his more moderate political positions wouldn't energize voters while others were concerned that without Abernathy, it's unlikely that any other candidate will be able to bridge the gap between the two competing ideological factions. This move left the primaries open to an intensive competitive election with political analysts predicting a large number of candidates will enter into the race and that the conflict between moderate and progressive Civic Democrats will take center stage as both wings vye for both the nomination and control over the party at-large.

Debates

The Civic Democratic National Committee organized a series of debates for the 2024 primaries. The first of these was held on August 23, 2023, in New Charleston, involving the major candidates and was hosted by CBS News anchors Charlotte Whitmer Lang and Garry Leckner. The major topics of the debate included: Economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, rising tensions with the United Commonwealth, and social issues such as the legality of same-sex marriage and abortion. The CDNC and CBS News were criticized by many on social media for including every declared major candidate regardless of polling status, which many believed stripped more important and high-polling candidates of adequate debate time.

A second debate was held on October 3, 2023, and was hosted jointly by HNN News and the Caribbean Central News Agency and held in Montgomery. Per HNN and CCNA guidelines Sarah Wilson, Mike Connelly and Kelly Parker were excluded from the debate as they had not reached at least 8% in the most recent national polls. The major topics of the debate included: economic issues such as government spending and welfare, social issues, and foreign policy, particularly the candidates' position on the Conference of American States and its handling of the 2021–23 Caribbean diplomatic crisis . Most notably, each candidate was asked their position on Antillean independence near the end of the debate. Allen Paul declared his support for Antillean independence, Alexander Wilder and Wyatt Tindall declared their opposition, and Esteban Morello declined to state a position.

A third debate was held on December 4, 2023, and was hosted jointly by CBS News and the New Charleston Observer and held in Davis. Paul, Wilder, and Tindall were invited to the debate, while Morello, Wilson, Connelly, and Parker were not, in accordance with a new 10% polling rule. Hispanic Civic Democrats condemned the debate organizers from excluding Morello, who although polled low amongst other candidates nationally, has polled exceptionally high amongst Hispanic Civic Democrats. The major topics of the debate included: racial inequality in the Antilles, rising economic inequality, constitutional reforms, and environmental concerns. At the end of the debate, Paul accused Wilder and Tindall of being "one in the same", and in a social media post shortly following the debate Paul provided supposed evidence of collaboration between the two campaigns. Both candidates denied the assertion.

A fourth debate was held on February 1, 2024 and was hosted jointly by the BGP News and Columbia News Channel. All major candidates were invited to the debate, a decision many believe was made in order to prevent a breakoff debate between Morello, Wilson, Connelly, and Parker. Topics included economic reform, specifically regarding the Antillean gambling industry, and various social issues. Halfway during the debate, Wilson accused the debate moderators of favoring Wilder and Paul, with her accusations being joined by Parker and Morello. Under his breath, BGP moderator Darius Goodwill quietly responded to Wilson by saying they should be more relevant next time. His response was picked up by his microphone, and became a trending topic on Antillean social media. Goodwill was briefly suspended by BGP News and apologized to Wilson days afterwards.

A fifth and final debate was held on May 5, 2024 and was hosted by CBS News. CBS reinstated requirements to participate in this debate, being that candidates with at least 4% in recent polling were allowed to participate. Only Paul and Wilder attended the debate. While Tindall and Morello were invited, both declined due to undisclosed personal reasons. As Paul and Wilder were both viewed as the front runners of the rest, the fifth debate produced the largest share of viewers amongst the others. Topics included candidate positions on various social issues and foreign policy.

Primary calendar

The primary calendar was announced by Civic Democratic National Committee in May 2023.

Date Total

pledged delegates

Primaries/caucuses
June 2, 2024
106
50
 Puerto Rico primary
Virgin Islands primary
June 11, 2024
(Super Tuesday)
949
 Hispaniola primary
June 18, 2024
645
 Cuba primary
June 25, 2024
20
 Abroad primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Presumptive Civic Democratic nominee for the 2024 Antillean presidential election
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		Bound
delegates 		Contests
won 		Popular
vote 		Running
mate
Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpeg
Allen Paul 		July 23, 1969
(age 55)
Montgomery, Hispaniola 		Mayor of Montgomery, Hispaniola (2019–present)
Member of the Montgomery City Council for the 2nd Ward (2013–2019)
Civic Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2020 		Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg
Hispaniola 		framless
Campaign
February 10, 2023
Secured nomination: June 18, 2024 		890 3
(VI, HA, CA) 		4,992,061 TBA

Withdrew during the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced 		Campaign
suspended 		Campaign Bound
delegates 		Contests
won 		Popular
vote
Former NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu Sept. 2018 (cropped).jpeg
Alexander Wilder 		July 19, 1960
(age 64)
Whiteport, Hispaniola 		Vice Chair of the Civic Democratic National Committee (2021–present)
Mayor of Whiteport, Hispaniola (2013–2021)
Member of the Whiteport Board of Supervisors (2005–2013) 		Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg
Hispaniola 		February 13, 2023 June 19, 2024
(endorsed Paul) 		Alexander Wilder 2024.png
Campaign 		586 1
(PR) 		3,213,319
JoeGarciaOfficialHeadshot.jpg
Esteban Morello 		July 16, 1964
(age 60)
Trinidad, Cuba 		Governor of Cuba (2021–present)
Antillean Representative from CA-21 (2003–2021) 		Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Cuba.svg
Cuba 		May 31, 2023 June 17, 2024
(endorsed Paul) 		Esteban Morello 2024.svg
Campaign 		157 None 847,521
Bob Casey Jr. official photo.jpg
Mike Connelly 		April 18, 1960
(age 64)
New Decatur, Hispaniola 		Antillean Senator from Jefferson Parish (2005–2017)
Civic Democratic nominee in 2016 		Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg
Hispaniola 		March 2, 2023 June 11, 2024
(endorsed Wilder) 		Mike Connelly 2024.svg
Campaign 		69 None 326,937
1024px-Susan Wild, Official Portrait, 115th Congress.jpeg
Sarah Wilson 		September 19, 1962
(age 61)
New Charleston, Cuba 		Antillean Representative from CA-10 (2017–present) Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Cuba.svg
Cuba 		April 30, 2023 June 11, 2024
(endorsed Paul) 		Sarah Wilson.svg
Campaign 		46 None 233,089
Katie Porter Official Portrait (cropped).jpg
Kelly Parker 		October 18, 1975
(age 48)
Davis, Hispaniola 		Antillean Representative from HA-87 (2017–present)
Member of the Harrison Parish Council (2013–2017) 		Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg
Hispaniola 		June 4, 2023 June 9, 2024
(endorsed Paul) 		Kelly Parker 2024.svg
Campaign 		TBD None TBD
Congressman Sestak Official Congressional headshot.jpg
Wyatt Tindall 		September 23, 1961
(age 62)
Saint Louis, Hispaniola 		Executive of Davis Parish (2019–present)
Member of the Hispaniola Provisional Assembly from the 22nd district (2009–2019) 		Flag of the Provisional Commonwealth of Hispaniola.svg
Hispaniola 		February 20, 2023 June 6, 2024
(endorsed Wilder) 		Wyatt Tindall 2024.svg
Campaign 		TBD None TBD

Decline to be candidates

The following notable individuals have been subject to speculation of a potential candidate, but have denied interest in running.

Vice presidential speculation

Main article: 2024 Civic Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection

Various media outlets speculated on who would potentially be the Civic Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election since 2022. According to Antillean political observers, a unity ticket between the moderate and progressive wings of the party, as since in the 2020 presidential election, is most likely to occur again. Beginning in December of 2023, there have been rumors that both Allen Paul and Alexander Wilder, the two leading candidates in the primary, may select a running mate before the national convention.

Since February of 2024, there has been considered media speculation that Wilder will select Wyatt Tindall as his running mate to unite the moderate vote. Both campaigns have denied this assertion.

Endorsements

Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries

Polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Civic Democratic Party presidential primaries

See also

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